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Houston Cougars wide receiver Mekhi Mews (83) scores a touchdown against the Kansas Jayhawks during the second quarter at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. William Purnell-Imagn Images

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs. Houston Cougars Preview: What The Stats Say

Originally posted on Houston Cougars on SI
By Michael Carrara | Last updated Aug 27, 2025 9:02 AM ET

Week one of Houston's 2025 campaign sees the fourth all-time meeting between the Cougars and the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks, the first FBS-FCS rendition of the matchup and the first since 1948 when both programs were brief rivals in the Lone Star Conference.

On paper, the Aug. 28 matchup tilts heavily towards the FBS side of the matchup in Houston with a largely overhauled roster and as many as eight new starters on offense, including junior quarterback, Texas A&M transfer and former five-star prospect Conner Weigman. The ESPN Analytics matchup predictor gives the Cougars a comfortable 87.2% win probability, which ideally allows Houston to settle a score and tie the all-time series between it and SFA at two games apiece.

The previous matchup saw the Lumberjacks beating the Cougars 21-13 at Public School Stadium (later Robertson Stadium) in Houston to win their second head-to-head matchup in three seasons from 1946 to 1948. However, it's safe to say that the matchup has evolved nearly eight decades later.

What the Stats Say About The Game

Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

SFA enters its seventh season with coach Colby Carthel at the helm, with the Lumberjacks being picked runner-up in the Southland Conference football preseason poll coming off a 7-5 campaign in 2024, consisting of a 4-3 mark in league play. What fueled that improvement from a 3-8 campaign in 2023 was the portal addition of quarterback Sam Vidlak for his redshirt junior season, in which he threw for 2,387 yards while throwing 27 touchdowns and just four interceptions, all for a Southland-leading 176.6 passer rating and top-three finish in FCS passing efficiency.

Vidlak and preseason All-American senior wide receiver Kylon Harris are the top connection among the Lumberjacks' passing core. Both were named to the FCS Walter Payton Award watchlist for 2025 after Harris logged 1,039 receiving yards and nearly doubled his career touchdown total in 2024, thanks to the breakout season of Vidlak.

Thomas B. Shea-Imagn Images

Houston, on the other hand, is fresh off a 4-8 campaign to begin the coach Willie Fritz era, looking to potentially even invert the very numbers on the columns. While the Cougars were left ranked 26th in FBS in total defense in 2024 under the tools of defensive coordinator Shiel Wood, they only broke the 20-point mark three times all season, in part due to an eight-quarter scoreless streak and multiple streaks without an offensive touchdown, which ultimately led to the dismissal of offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay.

But it turned out changes in both coordinator positions needed to be made effective, as Wood signed a contract to make him the new defensive coordinator under coach Joey McGuire at Texas Tech. After a reunion with offensive coordinator Slade Nagle from their Tulane tenures, Fritz appointed Austin Armstrong to defensive coordinator in recognizing the potential for career elevation after a two-year stint at Florida, which culminated in a split of defensive play-calling duties towards the end of that tenure.

This article first appeared on Houston Cougars on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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