TCU Football Opponent Preview: West Virginia Mountaineers

Patience for Neal Brown was wearing mighty thin after the 2022 season. The decision to keep him around as West Virginia's head coach was baffling to many. But a 9-4 finish in 2023 bought him some more time – at least, until WVU finished 6-7 in 2024. Brown was dismissed after the season for what many believe was a necessary change.

The rushing attack remained the team's strong suit, but quarterback Garrett Greene turned the ball over way too much, and the defense was wildly inconsistent. In losses, WVU gave up 34+ six times, emphasized in 45-18 and 52-15 losses to Kansas State and Texas Tech, respectively. In the Frisco Bowl, WVU surrendered 42 points to Memphis. The Mountaineers' 5-4 conference record was a significant over-performance as they weren't favored in 8-of-9 Big 12 games.

It was simply time for change. And change is exactly what WVU gets this year.

West Virginia Mountaineers Offense Preview

Two total starters remain on the roster from a season ago, one of which is standout running back Jahiem White. The junior follows up a 845-yard, seven-touchdown performance as one of WVU's only offensive options a year ago. Under Rich Rod's run-centric offense, White should exceed his 2024 production totals and be the center focus in the backfield. SMU transfer Jaylan Knighton joins him, as does Ferris State standout Kannon Katzer (8.8 yards per carry last year!). In this new system, all three could certainly get play.

The other necessary piece for a successful Rich Rod offense is a mobile quarterback, and WVU's got one in junior Nicco Marchiol. Last year, Marchiol sat behind a dual-threat talent in Greene, but gets the reins to an exciting system this year. He stands 6-foot-2, a robust 223 pounds, and runs a 40 somewhere in the high-4.5 range. Behind him are Texas A&M mobile transfer Jalen Henderson and Charlotte's Max Brown. While none present an immediately-apparent star, any of those three could prove to be effective with their legs.

Perhaps the biggest concern (and the reason so many are so low on the 'Neers) is an offensive line that has few proven commodities. The OL was rarely an issue under Brown, with multiple high NFL Draft choices gracing the field, but this year's unit returns just one FBS starter, guard Walter Young Bear (yes, Walter Young Bear), none of whom started for a Power Conference program last season.

Two of the receiving options transfer in from Jacksonville State along with Rich Rod: sophomore receiver Cam Vaughn (803 yards) and tight end Jacob Barrick. Rodney Gallagher is the other aforementioned returning WVU starter, bringing back 288 yards and three scores. All-Big Sky selection Jeff Weimer (1,016 yards) and Eastern Michigan's Oran Singleton (639 yards) bolster the depth there.

So, what to make of the new offense? Who knows. There's a wide range of outcomes–plenty of good ones!–with so many unknowns, particularly at QB. Marchiol appears to be the QB1 leader, at least according to Phil Steele, but he's as unproven as anyone on this roster.

West Virginia Mountaineers Defense Preview

Aside from the offensive line, this is really the biggest reason for hesitancy with WVU this season. The good: a bunch of transfers are all-conference performers elsewhere. The bad: they're smaller-school transfers, and defenses need about a full year-plus of cohesion to get anywhere.

Jimmori Robinson is a name absolutely worth noting. He comes in from UTSA, where he earned AAC Defensive Player of the Year honors, and can be a top game wrecker for WVU. His presence alone could make the front three pretty disruptive under new DC Zac Alley (Jacksonville State, Oklahoma). Robinson commands enough attention to give running mate and All-Big 12 honorable mention Edward Vesterinen one-on-one looks (or vice versa).

Inbound linebacker Chase Wilson was an All-Mountain West performer at Colorado State, APEX Fred Perry was All-Conference USA at Jacksonville State, and corner Michael Coats was a first-team all-conference player at Nevada. Add all these pieces up, and you're looking at a Group of Five All-Star defense roster. But against the likes of the Big 12, will that be enough?

For those interested in the real nitty gritty, the 3-3-5 defense requires a very specific group of players. When that defense does not have those very specific players, for example, a dominant run-stopping nose tackle who is the largest player on the field (like Hammond Russell, who weighs 308 pounds for WVU!), things go south quickly. Teams will be able to run with ease against the front, should it not have those players.

On paper, WVU doesn't appear to have those players. But paper (and models, for that matter) has a difficult time discerning what a collection of Group of Five all-conference players could do. Perhaps Alley was able to recruit the precise players necessary.

Best Case Scenario For West Virginia

The more I dove into this roster, the more I question why WVU is nearly a unanimous back-of-the-pack pick in preview magazines; Athlon and Lindy's both place the 'Neers 14th, and Phil Steele picks them dead last. My preseason numbers pin WVU 14th as well, with 5.1 projected wins, right around its 5.5 projected win total (with greater than a 50% implied chance to go under).

But I'm pushing back just a bit. There's a lot to like about this roster, even if there's no set group of superstars. It's *almost* like the setup Arizona State had last year. Almost.

Marchiol is a capable athlete with a large enough frame to stay healthy in a QB run-heavy RPO system. White is a top-tier back in the Big 12, and the receiving options are intriguing enough to be a viable group when called upon. The backfield is deep, with Henderson a suitable backup/situational guy and Knighton having some talent even if the production isn't there.

Defensively, I do think the transfer additions were very specific for Alley's 3-3-5. Robinson is one of the best portal gets anywhere and is a complete game wrecker. The front three could be more disruptive than projections foresee, and the secondary is at least made up of players with accolades, even if those came in other leagues.

And then there's Rich Rodriguez's track record in Morgantown. He left for a bigger job after piling up a 60-26 record and two 11-win years. His system is dynamic and led Jacksonville State to a successful FBS transition instantly. This is a bowl team in 2025 that could finish with a much better Big 12 record than the preseason projections believe. I'll go out on a limb and even say 8-4 is within the cards. Not guaranteed, but a possibility, given a couple upsets.

Worst Case Scenario For West Virginia

There are three major things that hold WVU back this season:

1. Last time under Rich Rod, WVU went 3-8 in Year 1
2. The offensive line may stink and tank the entire offense
3. Those Group of Five all-stars may not translate to the Big 12

Even if Rich Rod is a strong hire for the future of the program, he's not guaranteed ten wins in Year 1. There are 59 newcomers to Morgantown this year, and, although transfer transplants have worked in the recent past, typically those overhauls fail in Year 1 (see: Colorado in 2023). Defensive systems usually take at least a full year to install, and these are all new players coming from a myriad of systems. Projections have WVU as one of the worst defenses in the conference.

Young Bear at guard is the lone returning FBS starter and, at Tulsa, he managed third-team All-AAC honors. We won't diminish the accomplishment in isolation, but a Big 12 program expecting these types of players to succeed likely needs a first-teamer from a comparable league. The other four are Power Conference players–center Landen Livington started a game for WVU last year, guard Kimo Makan'ole comes over from LSU, tackle Ty'Kieast Crawford transfers from Arkansas, and other tackle Malik Agbo from Texas–but hardly anyone has any proven production against this competition.

Wrap all of that into one heck of a wildcard package and you have a team capable of losing 8+ games. While all three QBs could play well in the system, none of them have much of a robust ledger. Should none of them stick, this thing goes downhill fast.

West Virginia Mountaineers 2025 Schedule

TCU Opponent Previews

• Week One - North Carolina
• Week Four - SMU
• Week Five - Arizona State
• Week Six - Colorado
• Week Seven - Kansas State
• Week Eight - Baylor