Teams who can surprise during the 2023 college football season

Air Force's option offense that averaged a national-best 326.7 rushing yards during 2022's 10-3 campaign shouldn't miss a beat, especially when moving behind one of the Mountain West's best offensive lines led by center Thor Paglialong, and even despite star left tackle Everett Smalley no longer being on the roster. Meanwhile, an experienced secondary leads a stout defense, one that might be good enough to contain MWC preseason favorite Boise State and possibly upend the Broncos for the league title.

Colorado won one game in 2022, and hasn't had a winning record during a full season since 2016, yet it can be argued that more eyes will be on the Buffaloes than any other college football team this year. That said, the key to Colorado's success during Deion Sanders' first season in charge could at quarterback with his playmaking son Shedeur Sanders. In his two seasons playing for his old man at Jackson State, Sanders threw for 6,963 yards while completing 68.4 percent of his passes, with 70 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. He also ran for nine TDs while leading the program to a 23-3 mark in those two years.

While Clemson and Florida State have been labeled the frontrunners for the ACC championship in 2023, Duke returns roughly 15 starters from last year's 9-4 group. Playing behind what could be the league's top offensive line, versatile quarterback Riley Leonard (2,967 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, six interceptions; 699 rushing yards, 13 touchdowns) is a potential under-the-radar star within the league. Looking at their schedule, the Blue Devils play five of their first six at home, beginning with Clemson on Sept. 4, so the potential for a strong start is there.

The Eagles return roughly 11 starters from last season's squad that went 9-4 (resulting in the program's most wins since going 10-2 in 1987), tied for the Mid-American Conference West Division title and won their final four games, including a 41-27 triumph over San Jose State in the Idaho Potato Bowl. EMU should have plenty of confidence heading into the 2023 campaign, with its sights set on again challenging Toledo — and perhaps Northern Illinois — for the West crown. Samson Evans (1,166 rushing yards, 15 touchdowns) is arguably the best running back in the MAC.

The belief is that Georgia and Tennessee will occupy the top two spots, respectively, in the SEC East Division. However, after that it's not so cut and dry. Perhaps the Gators are ready to make enough noise to slip into the top three following a second straight 6-7 campaign. Yes, Florida lost its final three games of 2022, beginning with a setback at Vanderbilt. However, Billy Napier is poised to turn things around, and the veteran experience of Wisconsin transfer quarterback Graham Mertz (5,332 passing yards, 38 touchdowns, 26 interceptions in 32 college starts) could be the catalyst to Florida's potential improvement in 2023.  

After winning 10 games in 2021, Kentucky took a step back by finishing 7-6 last season. However, Will Levis didn't really play up to par and Chris Rodriguez Jr. was a distraction, both reasons why the Wildcats scored six or fewer points in three games. However, 2023 could be prime for a reset in Lexington. North Carolina State transfer quarterback Devin Leary brings plenty of experience and leadership to Kentucky this season. In 30 games, Leary threw for 6,807 yards and 62 touchdowns while being intercepted just 16 times. If Leary can stay healthy, then there is genuine reason for excitement.

Not only is favorite son Jeff Brohm guiding the program, much to the excitement of Cardinals faithful, but Louisville will play just three true road games in 2023 — North Carolina State, Pittsburgh, Miami, Fla. Now, each of those away contests will pose a serious challenge, but when talking about an ACC dark horse, Louisville could be the choice while trying to build on last season's 7-6 effort. Keep an eye on Georgia State transfer receiver Jamari Thrash (61 receptions, 1,122 yards, seven touchdowns in 2022).

On paper, and at least entering the season, the Big Ten's three best teams — Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State — reside in the East Division. That also happens to be where Maryland is housed. Now, we're not saying the Terrapins will shock the college football world and win the East, but they should be the best of the rest in that division, and perhaps good enough to top last season's eight-win mark. Of course, the Terps' chances begin and end with quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa (7,979 passing yards, 52 touchdowns, 26 interceptions; eight rushing touchdowns in 34 career games). Following back-to-back winning seasons, a culture of confidence under coach Mike Locksley has engulfed the Maryland program. Can that produce a home upset of Penn State or Michigan this season?

The basis of including Nebraska on this list is rather simple. The Cornhuskers program has finally moved on from the Scott Frost disaster, and that alone might translate into at least five wins. Now, if the team takes well to and plays hard for new coach Matt Rhule, then Nebraska's first bowl berth — and dare we say, winning season — since 2016 could be in the offering. Then again, the challenge of either might be too big for the transitional Cornhuskers, but at least their rabid fan base is back on board with excitement.  

One of the better stories in 2022 came via New Mexico State, which went 7-6 and won a bowl game after totaling eight wins the previous four seasons. Now, the Aggies, who will play in Conference USA this season, must replace a large share of their defense from last season, but nine starters return from an offense that averaged 35.3 points while winning six of their final seven games. Keep an eye on receiver Kordell David (24 receptions, four touchdowns in 2022) and tight end Thomas Whiteford, who has recorded 31 receptions in the last two years.

Marcus Freeman's Notre Dame debut season was a relative mess, starting 0-2 and highlighted by that rough home loss to Marshall. Don't expect the Irish to lose four games in 2023. In fact, with former Wake Forest star Sam Hartman (12,867 passing yards, 110 touchdowns in 48 career games) now under center and a defense led by talented defensive back Benjamin Morrison (six interceptions in 2022), it would not be a stretch to see Notre Dame challenge for a berth in the College Football Playoff. Key dates: Sept. 23, when Ohio State comes to South Bend, then hosting USC on Oct. 14, and that Nov. 4 trip to Clemson.

Oklahoma hasn't posted back-to-back losing seasons since a three-year stretch of futility from 1996-98. Now, a bowl loss last season left them 6-7, but that win total is the fewest by a Sooners team since winning five games in 1998. That said, Oklahoma might not be a favorite to win the Big 12, but quarterback Dillon Gabriel (11,200 passing yards, 95 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 14 rushing TDs in 38 career games with UCF and Oklahoma) is back for a second season in Norman, which provides offensive stability. And one should believe the Sooners will win more close games than in '22, when they dropped four by three points and another by seven.

Tulane might have what it takes to pull off a second straight American Athletic Conference title and UTSA could contend during its first season in the conference, but don't sleep on the Mustangs. Quarterback Preston Stone gets his chance to run an offense, led by receiver Jordan Kerley (37 receptions, six touchdowns in 2022), that ranked 12th in the nation last season averaging 37.2 points. Meanwhile, some transfer help could improve a defense that yielded an average of 33.8 points last season. Perhaps most important for SMU is that it doesn't face Tulane or UTSA in 2023.

More than 15 starters return from last season's historic 10-3 team that might be even better in 2023. If that is to be the case, South Alabama could very well end up winning the Sun Belt Conference title. However, the Jaguars likely would need to pull off road wins against James Madison and Troy, which won't be easy. Toledo transfer Carter Bradley looks to build on his breakthrough first season at South Alabama, when he threw for 3,343 yards with 28 touchdowns and 12 interceptions — all career highs.

Following back-to-back losing seasons, South Carolina went 7-6 in 2021 and 8-5 last season. Is there reason to believe the Gamecocks can further improve their win total in 2023? A second season with former Heisman Trophy candidate Spencer Rattler (more than 7,621 passing yards and 58 touchdowns in 36 career college games) under center makes it very much possible. He looks comfortable and confident with the Gamecocks, who have the potential to be in every game they play this season — perhaps even September trips to Georgia and Tennessee.

Mississippi and Arkansas have received plenty of love when it comes to working their way into the top three of the SEC West Division along with Alabama and LSU. Yet, it seems silly to believe the Aggies will follow that terrible 5-7 season with back-to-back losing campaigns for the first time since 2008-09. New offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino obviously has the experience and knowhow to improve an offense that averaged a meager 23 points last season. Likely starting quarterback Conner Weigman (896 yards with eight touchdowns and no interceptions in 2022) is worth keeping an eye on.

There should be plenty of preseason hype surrounding the Red Raiders in coach Joey McGuire's second season. They won their final four games of 2022, capped by a 42-25 win over Mississippi in the Texas Bowl. Texas Tech also beat Texas and Oklahoma last season, and gets Kansas State and TCU at home in '23. Quarterback Tyler Shough missed six weeks with a shoulder issue last season, but still threw for more than 1,300 yards and was MVP of the bowl win. Texas Tech also held six teams under 30 points last season. The addition of edge-rushing Syracuse transfer Steve Linton should boost that defensive cause.

The Pac-12 is a top-heavy conference, with arguably five teams — USC, Washington, Utah, Oregon, Oregon State — in the mix for the title. That said, nobody is really talking about UCLA, which has some key spots on offense to fill. However, the Bruins return more than half of their starters from a defense that took some lumps in 2022, but also held four teams to 17 or fewer points. Laiatu Latu is one of the Pac-12's best defenders after recording a whopping 10.5 sacks and 12.5 tackles for loss for UCLA last season.

From 2019-21, Vandy won five total games. Then, under coach Clark Lea last season, the Commodores went 5-7 and beat Kentucky and Florida on back-to-back November weekends. Fast forward to 2023, and Vanderbilt returns roughly 15 starters from that squad, and the team honestly believes six wins and a bowl game is quite attainable this time around. The Commodores don't have one true star, but receiver Will Sheppard has caught 103 passes for 1,353 yards and 13 touchdowns in the last two seasons.

Kalen DeBoer got Washington back to its winning ways by going 11-2 in 2022, and with exciting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. back, the Huskies could be a serious Pac-12 title contender. The Indiana transfer threw for 4,641 yards with 31 touchdowns and eight interceptions during his first at Washington. However, a revamped offensive line might ultimately be the key to Penix's success this season. While Washington gets Oregon and Utah at home, it plays at USC and Oregon State, which could be a dark horse contender in the Pac-12 race.