Tennessee vs. Illinois Prediction: Music City Bowl Preview

Why Tennessee Will Win The Music City Bowl

Both teams are dealing with key opt outs for this showdown on Dec. 30. But with a high-scoring game anticipated, Tennessee’s offense is suited for a potential track meet in the Music City. Quarterback Joey Aguilar led the SEC with 287 passing yards a contest and landed nine completions of at least 50 yards. 

Aguilar won’t have leading receiver Chris Brazzell II, as the junior entered the NFL Draft after catching 62 passes for 1,017 yards and nine touchdowns this year. However, the senior has plenty of weapons with Braylon Staley (64 catches) and Mike Matthews (50) leading the way at receiver and tight ends Ethan Davis (21) and Miles Kitselman (25). Also, running backs DeSean Bishop (983 yards) and Star Thomas (529) are a solid tandem to lean on for the ground game.

The combination of Aguilar and the Tennessee skill talent could be too much for an Illinois defense that was shredded (43 points allowed) in three games against ranked opponents in ‘25. Also, this unit ranked No. 128 nationally in pass defense success rate, allowing Aguilar plenty of opportunities for shots downfield. 

The Volunteers enter bowl season in a state of transition on defense. Coordinator Tim Banks was dismissed and a couple of players opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft, including cornerback Colton Hood, linebacker Arion Carter, and defensive end Joshua Josephs. Veteran assistant William Inge will call plays in this game. 

Tennessee’s defense allowed 28.8 points a contest in the regular season and is likely to struggle to get consistent stops on Tuesday. However, the Volunteers thrived at getting to the quarterback (36 sacks generated) and should be able to take advantage in the trenches against an Illinois front that surrendered 31 sacks this year. Inge and this group just need to find ways to get a couple of timely stops in the red zone and on third downs to get the ball back to Aguilar.

Why Illinois Will Win The Music City Bowl

Illinois is down a couple of key cogs for this game, including left tackle J.C. Davis, linebacker Gabe Jacas, and safety Matthew Bailey. However, the Fighting Illini aren’t navigating as much overall roster transition as Tennessee. In a game that’s expected to be tight on the scoreboard, more continuity should help Bielema’s squad.

Defense has been a major issue for Tennessee all season, and Illinois has the right ingredients to give this unit fits. Quarterback Luke Altmyer (249.9 total yards a game in ‘25) can hurt teams on the ground or through the air. The senior was efficient (68.1 percent completion rate) and limited mistakes (just five picks) in the regular season. On the ground, Bielema’s team can lean on a veteran offensive line and a trio of running backs against a thin Volunteers’ defensive front. 

If the Fighting Illini can get running backs Ca’Lil Valentine, Kaden Feagin, and Aidan Laughery on track, and Altmyer continues his efficient play, this offense can put together long drives to wear out Tennessee’s suspect defense. 

The Illinois defense had its share of issues against good offenses (Indiana, Ohio State, USC, and Washington) this year, this unit still limited teams to 5.3 yards a play and managed to limit the big plays allowed (just seven of 40-plus yards). Bielema’s defense doesn’t need to be perfect against the Volunteers - it just needs to find a way to get a couple of timely stops or create a turnover to steal a possession.

Music City Bowl Prediction:Tennessee 34, Illinois 31

Expect plenty of offensive fireworks and a game that goes down to the wire. Tennessee’s offensive firepower behind Aguilar will create a few big plays, but its defense is going to have trouble containing Altmyer and the balance of Illinois. Last team with the ball wins?