Tennessee vs. NC State prediction, pick, odds for Sat. Sept. 7

The first game of the season wasn't as pleasant for NC State head coach Dave Doeren. Despite featuring one of the best Group of Five quarterback transfers, the Wolfpack entered the fourth quarter trailing Western Carolina.

The Catamounts had plenty of success in Standard Downs passing, generating methodical and explosive drives. NC State struggled to keep Western Carolina out of the backfield, allowing nine tackles for loss.

Because of the Week 1 results, this spread has steamed through seven in favor of Tennessee. This will be a neutral site game for the Duke's Mayo Classic at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.

So, here's my Tennessee vs. NC State prediction and preview.

Tennessee vs. NC State Prediction

• Tennessee vs. NC State Pick: Over 61.5
  • Click here to bet the over instantly at FanDuel with QuickSlip — the bet is added directly to your bet slip at FanDuel automatically!

My Tennessee-NC State best bet is on the over, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

Tennessee vs. NC State Odds

Saturday, Sept. 7

7:30 p.m. ET

ABC

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

• Tennessee vs NC State Point Spread: Tennessee -7.5 (-114) · NC State +7.5 (-106)
• Tennessee vs NC State Total: Over/Under 60.5
• Tennessee vs NC State Moneyline: Tennessee -300 · NC State +240

Tennessee vs. NC State Preview

Tennessee Volunteers Betting Preview: Solid Week 1 Showing

Heupel stated at SEC Media Days that there was an expectation quarterback Nico Iamaleava would be ready to make a significant contribution from the beginning of the season.

The head coach was spot on as the sophomore threw for more than 300 yards on 22-of-28 passing against Chattanooga. Iamaleava created two big time throws, no turnover worthy plays and had a quick release at 2.6 seconds.

The offensive line did their part in protecting the quarterback, too, allowing just one passing attempt to fly with pressure from the Mocs' defense.

Heupel's stretch wide spread formation was rolling for the weapons outside of the tackle box.

At least eight different players drew three targets on the day, but a former Oregon Ducks wideout stole the show. Dont'e Thornton Jr. caught all three targets for a grand total of 105 receiving yards and two touchdowns.

The Tennessee offense was firing on all cylinders, as if the timing was in mid-season form.

On the opposite side of the ball, the Tennessee defensive line took over the game, producing five quarterback hurries against Chattanooga. The Mocs were stuffed in Standard Downs, resulting in an average third-down distance of 9.9 yards, going 1-for-14 on conversion attempts.

Although Chattanooga doesn't bring the pedigree of an SEC opponent, the Mocs failed to produce a single explosive or methodical drive by getting beyond the Tennessee 40-yard line on just three-of-14 possessions.

NC State Wolfpack Betting Preview: Pack Looking to Protect QB

Per Sagarin ratings, NC State should've had an easier time with Western Carolina than Tennessee's afternoon hosting Chattanooga. The Wolfpack were inline for an FCS upset if not for a flurry of touchdowns in the fourth quarter.

Coastal Carolina transfer quarterback Grayson McCall had an unkind introduction to NC State football, seeing pressure on nine drop backs, with targets dropping four balls on the day.

Blindside left tackle Anthony Belton was responsible for two of the pressures allowed, but the offensive line, as a whole, failed to dominate the line of scrimmage in Standard Downs.

NC State ended the victory with 8-of-32 rushing attempts stuffed, close to the national average mark of 30%. The Catamounts' defense spent the entire trip playing in the backfield, with nine tackles for loss.

With an overall Success Rate just above national average on the day, the Wolfpack offense relied on explosives to win the game. McCall completed 10 passes that gained 15 yards or more, tripling the national average in explosive drive rate.

Target share for the Wolfpack weapons may be different going forward, as wideout Dacari Collins was responsible for half of the team's drops.

While the struggles on offense can be centered around the offensive line, the defensive line failed to take over the Catamounts' offense.

Western Carolina had 42 snaps in Standard Downs to just 17 in Passing Downs, averaging 7.5 yards per play on rushing attempts. Coordinator Tony Gibson had no answers for a 3-3-5 defense that lost one of the program's best-ever linebackers, allowing three-of-five red zone attempts to result in touchdowns.

Weakside linebacker Sean Brown had one of the lowest grades of any defender against the rush.

Although Western Carolina was well above national average in Success Rate using its path, NC State corner Aydan White allowed just five-of-11 opponent targets to be caught, with two resulting in a pass breakup.

How to Watch Tennessee vs NC State Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location

Tennessee vs. NC State Betting Trends

• 93% of the bets are on NC State against the spread while 91% of the money is on the Wolfpack to cover.

About the Author

Collin is a senior writer for the Action Network, but serves in various roles behind the scenes as well. As someone who specializes in data visualization of probabilities, power ratings, and head-to-head matchups, Collin’s work within the college football space powers the Action Network’s PRO projections throughout the college football season, and has done so since the birth of the app in 2017. Collin contributes similarly to the college basketball vertical, and his passion for predictive analytics have led him to become a key force in finding betting edges in more niche markets such as professional wrestling and entertainment awards.

Follow Collin Wilson @_Collin1 on Twitter/X.