Texas A&M's Playoff Odds Improve After Win vs. Auburn

Fresh off a scrappy 16-10 win over Auburn , the Aggies now turn their attention to Jeff Lebby’s Mississippi State.  Through four games, the Bulldogs have been one of the biggest surprises in the conference. They started 4-0 and nearly upset No. 15 Tennessee in an overtime thriller.

While Mississippi State owns just a 1.6 percent playoff chance, FPI still ranks them inside the top 40 nationally. Saturday’s blackout game against the cowbells will not be easy, but another victory would only strengthen A&M’s playoff case.

10 Wins is the Sweet Number

Let’s just say the Aggies take care of business on Saturday against Mississippi State. They would now be sitting at 5-0, halfway to the 10-win mark that has become the SEC’s unofficial playoff benchmark. Just last season, Tennessee earned a playoff berth with a 10-2 finish.

A&M’s résumé already includes a win over a top-25 FPI team in Auburn and a top-10 FPI team in Notre Dame. As it stands now, the Aggies will play three current top 25 FPI teams in Missouri (17), LSU (19), and Texas (4). South Carolina (27) and Florida (33) are also lurking as potential résumé boosters. Against Arkansas, A&M will now be even bigger favorites after the hogs fired Sam Pittman.

Looking ahead, Texas A&M will likely be favored in matchups against Florida, Arkansas, Missouri, and South Carolina. Winning those four would push the Aggies to nine victories if you count Mississippi State as a win.

The real tests will come on the road at LSU and Texas, where A&M is expected to be the underdog. Still, with both programs stumbling out of the gate, it is not unreasonable to think that A&M could pull off the upset.

Of course, all of this remains hypothetical. The season is far from settled, and as the saying goes, November is when contenders separate from pretenders. A&M has a history of face-palming in November, the Aggies went 0-3 in SEC play last November. 

If Elko’s squad wants a legitimate shot at January football, winning in November is crucial.

At 4-0, the Aggies are already 40% of the way toward their College Football Playoff goal. With six more wins likely needed to reach the big dance, optimism is in the air around College Station.

First things first, though. A&M must handle business against Mississippi State this weekend before turning its attention to the rest of the schedule.