Texas State Bobcats College Football Preview 2026

Texas State Quick Hits

• Head Coach: GJ Kinne (4th year overall, 23-16)
• Best Case / Worst Case: Fourth straight winning season and bowl game/First losing season since 2022
• Key Player: Brad Jackson, QB Soph.
• 2025 Record: 7-6
• Biggest Question: Can the offensive scheme handle the tougher new conference schedule?

Texas State Key 2025 Stats

• Fumbles: Texas State 14 (lost 9), Opponents 9 (lost 3)
• First Quarter Scoring: Texas State 98, Opponent 58
• Fifth in the nation in completion percentage (70.1%)

Offense

The entire point of the Texas State offense is to move quickly. It might not be quite the warp-speed level of other attacks, but safe midrange passes, big running lanes, and move, move, move.

Keep defenses on their heels, and force teams to get out of their comfort zones to keep up. This year's attack will keep doing that.

- 2026 Texas State Schedule Analysis

What’s Working

The offense puts up lots and lots of yards. The backs rip off yards in chunks, the quarterbacks are put in a good position to make plays, and the results are massive. Texas State led the Sun Belt and was fifth in the nation, averaging 473 yards per game.

Most of the stars are back. Quarterback Brad Jackson hit 71% of his throws for 3,224 yards and 21 touchdowns with 17 rushing scores.

All-star receiver Beau Sparks returns after catching a team-high 84 passes, and the rest of the receiving corps is deep. Getting transfer Davian Jackson from Mississippi State helps.

The interior of the offensive line should be terrific. The pass protection wasn’t always great, but the statistics don’t tell the whole story. Jackson technically was sacked a bunch trying to run. This group knows how to open up holes.

What Needs Work

The running backs. Jackson might be the team’s most dangerous rusher, but top back Lincoln Pare is done, and projected new starter Greg Burrell is currently off the team.

The pass protection could stand to be better. Yes, Jackson is a mobile quarterback, and yes, the offensive line should be a plus, for the most part. But the left side is relying on transfers - losing center Brock Riker to Penn State stings.

The attack is a bit too reliant on the scheme. Texas State is a volume team. The defense hasn’t been bad, but the machine breaks down when the Bobcats aren’t marching.

They were 6-0 when coming up with 24 or more first downs, and 1-6 when they didn’t.

Player to Watch

Brad Jackson, QB Soph.
He doesn’t have to do it all himself, but he’s going to.

The playmaking dual-threat quarterback has a tremendous receiving corps to work with - the passing stats should be tremendous. He has the offense down after a brilliant 2025, and as he goes, so goes the team.

Defense

The Bobcat defense under Kinne hasn’t had a ton of size or star talent, but this bunch can move.

The offense is the star, and it’s up to the defense to hold serve every once in a while. There’s a lot of pressure in opposing backfields, but not enough big plays overall.

The task, though, is simple. Keep teams to under 31 points, and Texas State will almost always win. Don’t, and uh oh.

What’s Working

Getting into the backfield. There’s an overhaul happening on the defensive front, but the transfer portal should help with that.

DonTerry Russell is back after finishing second on the team with 4.5 sacks, and the new parts coming in through the portal can all get to the quarterback.

The Bobcats made some nice transfer moves. Phillip Bradford is a 6-6, 308-pound pass rusher from McNeese State. Experienced and always moving, he was a strong signing with All-Pac-12 upside.

The potential is there for the secondary to be sneaky-good. It’ll take help from the defensive line pressure, but the defensive backs will be solid around second-leading tackler Ryan Nolan at one safety spot.

What Needs Work

The defensive tackles have some mammoth holes to fill. It’s not like the Bobcats had prime Reggie White in the interior, but Jordan Sanders (Florida State) and Kamren Washington (Baylor) were good veterans.

Bryce Carter is a decent option on the inside, but it’s up to the transfers to take over up front.

There aren’t enough big plays. For all of the pressure applied throughout last year, there weren’t enough takeaways or giant, game-changing moments. The Bobcats only had two regular-season games with multiple takeaways.

Third down stops. The Bobcats were able to pull off a few wins when the defense wasn’t getting off the field, but there were a few games - like a tough 42-39 loss to Louisiana and the blowout loss to James Madison - when nothing was happening on the money downs.

Player to Watch

Ayden Jones, LB Jr.
The 6-2, 224-pound former Prairie View A&M transfer is built like a big safety, and he runs like one.

He didn’t do anything in the backfield last year for the Bobcats, but he made 56 tackles in the linebacker rotation. Now he’s the crusty veteran of the rebuilding corps.

Keys to the Season

In the new Pac-12, the talent level is about to go up a few notches. Texas State’s high-powered offense has to be the differentiating factor in a slew of shootouts.

Big yards, big points, big momentum swings. As long as the Bobcats are playing their game, they’ll be okay.

Player Who Needs To Shine

Jaylen Jenkins, RB Sr.
There are other running back options, but Torrance Burgess is coming off a knee injury, and there isn’t enough developed depth to rely on right away.

Jenkins is a smallish veteran who transferred in from Washington State a few years ago. He has a little bit of time logged in, rushing for 170 yards last year, and now the spotlight is on.

Biggest Concern

The upgrade in opponents
Texas State has some nice wins under Kinne. His era opened up with a win over Baylor in 2023, he won all three of his bowl games, and the 2024 team gave eventual Big 12 champion Arizona State a massive show in a tough loss.

But overall, the teams in the Pac-12 will be better than most of the Sun Belt squads the Bobcats faced.

Biggest Game

Colorado State, October 17
Everyone will make too much out of this, but it’ll be Texas State’s first Pac-12 home game, and it’s a chance to make a statement.

You don’t just walk into Jim Wacker Field at UFCU Stadium and expect to leave with a conference road win.

Transfer Portal

It’s a strangely light portal class, but that’s by design. Between the move up in conference weight class and Kinne still around as the head coach, there was already a nice base of talent in place.

Best Signing

Davian Jackson, WR/RB RFr.
Really, really, really fast, he went to Mississippi State as a high-end home run hitter of a wide receiver, and he might see time there early on with the Bobcats. But he’ll likely be used more as a flash of lightning out of the backfield.

Biggest Loss

Brock Riker, C Soph.
He’s only 6-4 and 290, but he moves well, is still growing into his role, and now he’ll be a part of Matt Campbell’s offensive front up at Penn State.

Other Names to Know

• William Boone, OT (North Carolina)
• Dexter Ricks, CB (Liberty)
• Zechariah Sample, WR (Arizona State)

CFN Season Prediction

Just how much can all the flash, speed, and scheme come together with such a nasty new schedule?

GJ Kinne should’ve been a hotter name in the coaching carousel, but he’s still around, he has his guys in place, and at the very least, Texas State will be pushing for a bowl game.

CFN Prediction: 5-7
- Texas State and Pac-12 Win Total Breakdown

Again, though, the Pac-12 now isn’t the Sun Belt.

The season starts at Texas, making the long trips to places like Boise, Idaho, and Corvallis, Oregon, and over to San Diego to be a part of the new conference will be tough.

Home games against Fresno State, Washington State, and out-of-conference against UTSA and North Texas should be 50/50 battles.

We might be selling the Bobcats a bit short here, and they are good enough to get to a bowl game, but it will take a magical run to be a part of the Pac-12 title mix.