Texas Tech Has the Best Odds of Anyone to Go Undefeated

The Texas Tech Red Raiders continue to turn heads in the national analytics world, as ESPN’s Bill Connelly has projected them as the most likely team in the country to finish the regular season 12-0 according to his latest SP+ ratings. Connelly’s model gives Texas Tech a 36.3% chance to go undefeated, the highest mark of any team in college football heading into Week 7.

That number puts the Red Raiders ahead of powerhouse programs like Ohio State, Oregon, Miami, and Indiana, among others, and serves as another sign of just how far Joey McGuire’s team has come. Through six weeks, Texas Tech has established itself as one of the most complete teams in the country, blending physicality on defense with balance and explosiveness on offense. The analytics back that up as the Red Raiders currently rank among the top units nationally in both offensive and defensive SP+, a rare combination that tends to define legitimate playoff contenders.

For fans in Lubbock, the buzz surrounding this team feels different. McGuire has built a culture centered on toughness and discipline, and the results have followed. Tech’s offense has found rhythm under quarterback Behren Morton, who has shown poise and confidence leading an attack that can stretch the field vertically and dominate in the trenches. Defensively, the Red Raiders have continued to force turnovers and control the line of scrimmage, allowing them to close out games that might have slipped away in past seasons.

Connelly’s SP+ ratings are designed to measure the most efficient and balanced teams in college football, factoring in opponent quality, tempo, and consistency. For Texas Tech to be sitting at the top of that list in October is more than just a nod to performance; it’s a statement about sustainability. The Red Raiders are no longer the spoiler team. They’re the hunted.

Of course, the remaining Big 12 schedule won’t make that path to perfection easy. Trips to Arizona State and Kansas State, along with a home clash against BYU, will test Tech’s ability to sustain this level of play week after week. But at this point, the Red Raiders have proven they belong in every national conversation.

A 12-0 season in Lubbock would have sounded like a dream not long ago, but the numbers say it’s more than possible. For now, Joey McGuire’s group owns the best odds in America, and if they keep playing like this, those odds might soon look conservative.