Texas Tech vs. Utah score prediction by expert football model

The latest prediction for Texas Tech vs. Utah in this Week 4 college football game from an expert analytical model that projects scores.

Everything isn’t on the line in a game this early in the season, but something could be, as two ranked, undefeated Big 12 title contenders face off in this matchup, with the winner taking an important first step in separating themselves from the pack going forward.

Texas Tech has been scoring 60 points per game on average in an offense led by Behren Morton at quarterback, scoring 11 touchdowns with just 1 interception, but this unit will face a considerably tougher test on the road against a strong Utah defense.

That group ranks eighth nationally by allowing fewer than 9 points per game, while quarterback Devon Dampier leads an attack that posts 290 rushing yards, good for seventh in the country, and averages nearly 46 points per game.

What do the analytics suggest will happen as the Utes welcome the Red Raiders in this important Big 12 opener?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to see how Utah and Texas Tech compare in this Week 4 college football game.

Texas Tech vs. Utah score prediction

So far, the models are siding with the home team in this conference matchup, but expect one of the closest games this college football weekend.

SP+ predicts that Utah will defeat Texas Tech by a projected score of 28 to 26 and to win the game by an expected 1.9 points in the process.

The model gives the Utes a very narrow 55 percent chance to win the game outright.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 70-75 against the spread with a 48.3 win percentage.

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How to pick the game

The books are naming the Utes a narrow favorite over the Red Raiders this week.

Utah is a close 2.5 point favorite against Texas Tech, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 56.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Utah at -146 and for Texas Tech at +122 to win outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take...

• Texas Tech +2.5
• Utah to win -146
• Bet under 56.5 points

If you take that line, you’ll be in the company of most bettors, according to the latest spread consensus picks for this Big 12 game.

Texas Tech is getting a slight majority 52 percent of bets to win the game in an upset on the road, or to keep the final margin under 3 points in a loss.

The other 48 percent of wagers project Utah will win the game by at least a field goal on home ground and cover the narrow spread to stay undefeated.

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Computer prediction

Most other football analytical models also favor the Utes over the Red Raiders.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Utah is a decent favorite over Texas Tech in the matchup, coming out ahead in the majority 65 percent of the computer’s updated simulations of the game.

That leaves Texas Tech as the presumptive winner in the remaining 35 percent of sims.

But that apparent disparity narrowed considerably when the computer model went about calculating the final margin in the game.

After simulating the game 20,000 times, Utah is projected to be just 3.8 points better than Texas Tech on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 73.1 percent of all games and hit 52.8 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

More: ESPN computer predicts Utah vs. Texas game winner

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How to watch Texas Tech vs. Utah

When: Sat., Sept. 20
Where: Utah

Time: 12 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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