Texas underestimated before season opener despite No. 1 preseason ranking

The national media has ambitious predictions for Texas in the upcoming season, but their first test is more than many bettors can stomach.

On Monday, the Associated Press released its preseason poll for 2025. Texas will enter the season as the No. 1 team in the country, followed by defending national champion Ohio State, which beat them in the College Football Playoff semifinal in January.

The two teams will meet for a rematch on Aug. 30 at Ohio Stadium in Columbus.

Per ESPN's Doug Greenberg, the Longhorns became the first team since at least 1978 to be ranked No. 1 in the AP poll but be the underdog in Week 1.

"Barring significant line movement, this would make the Longhorns the first top-ranked team to be an underdog in Week 1, according to ESPN Research data dating back to 1978.

"The previous tightest Week 1 point spread for a No. 1 team was when Florida State lost outright as a four-point favorite at No. 8 Miami in 1988. Auburn also lost as a five-point favorite against No. 10 Miami in 1984, while Notre Dame won and covered as a five-point favorite against No. 4 Michigan in 1990."

The Longhorns are a 2.5-point underdog to the Buckeyes, per ESPN BET. Since Vegas typically grants the home team approximately three points on the spread, bettors think Texas and Ohio State are nearly identical, with the Longhorns maybe having a slight advantage on a neutral field.

Texas faces a significant challenge against Ohio State, as they will take the field for the first time with quarterback Arch Manning as the full-time starter. The Longhorns will likely be improved from Week 1 if the two teams meet again in the CFP.

The AP poll and the Vegas spread show how silly the preseason poll can be. It's hard to gauge how good teams are until they stop playing cupcakes and get into conference play.