Texas vs. Arizona State Prediction

The 2024-25 College Football Playoff continues with quarterfinal matchups on Wednesday, Jan. 1, as Texas and Arizona State meet in the Peach Bowl for a trip to the semifinals. This game takes place at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Ga. This is the second all-time meeting between the Longhorns and Sun Devils on the gridiron. Texas holds a 1-0 series edge over Arizona State, but these two teams have not played since '07.

Texas started the College Football Playoff with a 38-24 win over Clemson on Dec. 21. Coach Steve Sarkisian's team accounted for 494 total yards, with running backs Jaydon Blue (146) and Tre Wisner (110) helping to gash the Tigers for 6.1 yards a carry. The Longhorns' debut season in the SEC was a success, with the team's only defeats (12-2) coming at the hands of Georgia. Sarkisian's squad defeated Michigan (31-12), Oklahoma (34-3), Florida (49-17), and Texas A&M (17-7) during the regular season and is arguably one of the most balanced teams in the playoff.

While Texas started '24 as one of the favorites to win the national title, the expectation level was completely different at Arizona State. After a 3-9 record last season, the Sun Devils showed marked improvement in coach Kenny Dillingham's second year. Arizona State reeled off six consecutive victories down the stretch - including a 45-19 blowout of Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship - to reach the playoff as the No. 4 seed. The Sun Devils had a bye week in the first round but are a heavy underdog entering Wednesday's matchup.

Texas is 31-24-2 in all-time bowl appearances. The Longhorns are 1-1 in previous playoff trips. Arizona State is 15-17-1 in prior bowl visits. Wednesday game marks the first playoff game for the Sun Devils. 

Texas vs. Arizona State

Peach Bowl
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Ga.
Kickoff: Wednesday, Jan. 1 at 1 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: Texas -13
Over/Under: 51.5
Announcers: Joe Tessitore, Jesse Palmer, and Katie George 

Why Texas Will Win

Texas is the better team and its strength on both sides of the ball should show up over four quarters in Atlanta. Also, only one of the Longhorns' 12 victories was decided by one score in '24. Although Sarkisian's team has had its share of inconsistent moments, Texas has largely handled its business. 

Quarterback Quinn Ewers faces an Arizona State secondary ranked No. 97 nationally in defensive success rate and could get a key weapon back with receiver Isaiah Bond potentially returning after missing the first round due to injury. With the Sun Devils struggling to generate a consistent pass rush, along with a vulnerable secondary, the setup is in place for Ewers to have a huge game on Wednesday.

Starting center Jake Majors and right tackle Cameron Williams were banged up in the win over Clemson, but Majors is on track to play in Wednesday's game. Williams is questionable and could be a game-time decision. Those ailments loom large for the Longhorns' ground attack. After rushing for 200 or more yards in four out of the last six games, Sarkisian's offense can lean on Jaydon Blue and Tre Wisner once again to take advantage of its edge in the trenches.

Only two teams - Florida and Clemson - posted more than 300 yards against Texas' defense. The Longhorns are one of the stingiest groups in the nation, limiting teams to 13.3 points a game and just 4.2 yards a snap. Sarkisian's defense also thrives at shutting down the run, which is crucial with Arizona State's strength at running back with Cam Skattebo. 

Simply, Texas has too many ways to beat teams offensively, and the defense is among  the best in college football. That's a tough formula for Arizona State to beat.

Why Arizona State Will Win

Arizona State is a heavy underdog, but that's also where Dillingham's team has thrived in '24. The Sun Devils have been doubted all year, yet improved throughout the season and finished on a six-game winning streak. With few picking Arizona State to win, Dillingham can play up the underdog role as motivation. Also, having a bye week and extra time to prep should help this team.

If Arizona State is going to pull off the upset, quarterback Sam Leavitt needs to deliver a big-time performance. Few teams have consistently moved the ball on Texas this year, but Clemson's passing attack showed there were a few cracks to exploit. Leavitt won't have No. 1 receiver Jordyn Tyson (out due to injury), but the rest of the supporting cast is capable. Xavier Guillory (19 catches) and Melquan Stovall (17) lead the way at receiver, with tight end Chamon Metayer (29) also heavily involved. 

Running back Cam Skattebo is the heart and soul of Arizona State's offense and led the team with 1,568 yards and 19 touchdowns on the ground this year. However, Texas has been stingy all year against the run, and Skattebo could find limited room to operate. Dillingham and coordinator Marcus Arroyo have to find ways to get Skattebo involved as a receiver or scheme up ways to clear rushing lanes.

Arizona State's defense took a big step forward this season, limiting teams to 21.3 points a game (down from 31.8 points a contest) and 5.2 yards a play (down from 60). This unit also leads the Big 12 in rush defense and has allowed only 11 plays of 30-plus yards. Considering the firepower on the Texas' sideline, coordinator Brian Ward's group will have to bend but not break. Also, a couple of takeaways are a must. 

Final Analysis

Arizona State's improvement and Big 12 Championship are one of the best stories of the '24 season. However, Wednesday's game is a huge step up in competition for Dillingham's squad. The Sun Devils will have to play their best game of the year and also catch a few breaks to have any shot at the upset. Arizona State battles for four quarters, but Texas is simply too deep and too talented on both sides of the ball and takes control of this one in the third quarter to book a trip to the semifinals. 

Prediction: Texas 34, Arizona State 17