Texas vs Sam Houston Prediction: Will Arch Manning and the Longhorn Offense Finally Get Moving?

The 0-3 Bearkats haven’t been awful - as Group of Five losses go, dropping the dates to Western Kentucky and Hawaii on the road and, at home against UNLV, isn’t bad - and all the pressure is on the other side.

After this paycheck game, the Conference USA season starts next week at New Mexico State.

Texas vs Sam Houston How To Watch

Saturday, September 20, 2025
Game Time: 8:00 PM ET
TV: ESPN+/SEC Network
Location: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
@PeteFiutak

Why Sam Houston Will Win

No, the Texas offense isn't working like it's supposed to.

The ground game isn't totally awful, but it's not getting the big dashes from the backs. But that's not why Texas fans are so bad.

Arch Manning hit 44% of his passes against UTEP - the accuracy is supposed to be getting better and not be such a fight.

Sam Houston's pass defense hasn't been anything special, but the D as a whole is taking the ball away, and the run D has been solid, allowing fewer than four yards per carry.

The Bearkat offense is moving the ball a bit with the midrange passing game, but ...

Why Texas Will Win

Sam Houston might not come up with a third down conversion.

Western Kentucky, UNLV, and Hawaii aren't exactly the 1985 Chicago Bears defensively, and they kept Sam Houston from doing anything to move the chains.

The Bearkats have converted just 14% of their tries, and the defense isn't generating third down stops. Texas might be having real problems on the offensive side, but the solid defense should be able to get off the field in a hurry. 

But what everyone really, really, really wants to know is ...

Seriously, Can Arch Manning Complete Passes?

Sam Houston can generate a little bit of pressure from the defensive front, but the offensive line can't pass protect, just a few Longhorn points should be enough, and ...

Again, can Arch complete passes?

The receivers aren't always helping, but still, connecting on just 55% of his throws isn't good enough. He's playing like he's overcoached, under pressure, and worrying about not screwing up.  

Arch Manning will be fine - eventually. In the meantime, Texas will roll to another easy win.

Texas vs Sam Houston Prediction, Betting Lines

Texas 45, Sam Houston 7
Line: Texas 39.5, o/u: 51.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2
Must See Rating: 2
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Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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