The Best and Worst-Case Scenarios for the BYU Quarterback Battle

BYU football is back. On Tuesday, the players report for Fall Camp. On Wednesday, the first practice will be held and Fall Camp will be underway. The headline of camp will be the three-man quarterback derby between McCae Hillstead, Treyson Bourguet, and Bear Bachmeier. In this article, we'll outline the worst-case scenario, the best-case scenario, and what we believe is the most likely scenario.

The Worst-Case Scenario

There are costs to a quarterback battle, especially a three-way quarterback battle. For every day the quarterback battle continues, it takes away first-team reps from the eventual starter. Splitting reps is not ideal, but the BYU coaching staff has been able to navigate splitting reps in the past. Just last year, Jake Retzlaff and Gerry Bohanon split first-team reps throughout the duration of Fall Camp.

A true three-way quarterback battle that lasts throughout camp could come with consequences. To be clear, we're not referring to a scenario in which the coaches decline to name a starter. That's almost to be expected in this era of college football. Rather, in the worst-case scenario, the three-way battle would extend deep into camp to where first-team reps are being split three ways.

In that scenario, BYU could end up with a brand new quarterback that has not had time to gel with the first-team offense.

If none of the three quarterbacks really emerge as the guy that can lead the BYU offense, the uncertainty at quarterback could extend into the season. If you're a BYU fan, that's not how you want this quarterback battle to go. At minimum, whether it's internally or externally, BYU will need to trim the race from three to two at the earliest indication that one of the three quarterbacks is behind the other two.

The Best-Case Scenario

In the best-case scenario, BYU would be able to at least identify a front-runner in the quarterback battle after the first few days of camp - that would allow the front-runner to get most of the first-team reps.

As far as the best-case scenario goes, there is more than just the timing component.

No quarterback on the roster has a higher ceiling than true freshman Bear Bachmeier. Bear was a star quarterback at Murrieta Valley High School for three years. He arrived at Stanford and was one of two quarterbacks competing for the starting job before he decided to enter the transfer portal. Bear has all the physical tools to be a fantastic college quarterback. He is already 230 pounds, he is dangerous with the ball in his hands, and he has the arm talent to make every throw required of him in Aaron Roderick's offense. In high school, Bachmeier had a career TD/Int ratio (including rushing TDs) of 92/14.

In the best-case scenario, Bear Bachmeier will be ready to contribute earlier than anticipated. Bachmeier is young and the potential quarterback of the future. If he is ready to take over the job right away, it could give the BYU offense the highest ceiling in 2025 and potentially setup that position for the future.

The data suggests that it will be unlikely for Bachmeier to start in week one. Only one true freshman started at quarterback in week one last year: Nebraska'a Dylan Raiola.

If Bachmeier overcomes the odds, that would probably be the best-case scenario for BYU.

The Most Likely Scenario

The BYU staff isn't afraid to let a quarterback battle last through the end of camp. They let a true battle continue to the end up camp in 2024 and they declined to name a starter until game week in 2020 and 2021. It would not be surprising if BYU declines to name a starter until the week of the game or even the day of the season opener.

As far as which player is most likely to win the job, we believe that player is McCae Hillstead. Hillstead is a dual-threat quarterback, something that is really important for Aaron Roderick's offense. Hillstead also made some really high-level throws as a true freshman at Utah State. He put enough on film to earn offers from every major power conference when he entered the portal in 2024.

In camp settings, Hillstead has consistently made big plays in the limited sessions that the media is permitted to watch.

Experience is important in college football, especially at quarterback. We think his experience, combined with his talent and his experience in the program, gives him a very slight edge over the other quarterbacks.