The Impossible: James Madison Upsets Oregon

Iowa Formula for Chaos

Identifying weaknesses for Oregon coach Dan Lanning’s team is difficult and the Ducks’ 11–1 record and top-five ranking explain why. Oregon ranks 11th nationally in points per game (36.3) while allowing the eighth-fewest points per contest (15).

JMU coach Bob Chesney and his staff will point to Oregon’s 18-16 win at Iowa on Nov. 8 as the clearest blueprint for shocking the college football world. The Hawkeyes achieved three outcomes the Dukes must replicate to have any chance of pulling off the upset.

1. Win Time of Possession

Iowa (8-4) held the ball for 33:20, limiting Oregon’s offense to just 59 snaps. The Hawkeyes managed only 101 rushing yards on 43 carries (2.3 yards per carry), but the sheer volume of attempts kept the clock moving and shortened the game.

Is this something the Dukes can exploit? JMU ranks sixth nationally in rushing yards per game (240.8) and is tied with Army (6-5) for second in time of possession (34:13), making this an area of clear strength. If the Dukes can control the ball and the clock, their margin for pulling the upset increases significantly.

2. Make Oregon One-Dimensional

Oregon dominated the ground game against Iowa, rushing for 261 yards on 36 carries (7.3 yards per carry), their fourth-best rushing performance of the season. Even so, the Ducks never truly took flight through the air. Quarterback Dante Moore threw for just 112 yards with zero TDs and one INT, well below Oregon’s season average of 246.2 passing yards per game.

Pro Football Focus graded Moore at 65.6 for the performance, his second-worst mark of the season. That grade was better than only the 45.6 he posted in Oregon’s lone loss to No. 1 Indiana (13-0). This matters against a JMU defense that was stingy all year, allowing just 77 rushing yards per game (second nationally) and 178.8 passing yards per game (15th).

JMU is not going to shut down the Oregon offense completely. If the Dukes are going to pull off the upset, they must take away either the run or the pass. Allowing both would turn the game into a mismatch quickly.

3. Keep the Game Close

Oregon jumped out to a 9-0 lead against Iowa on a 19-yard TD run by running back Dierre Hill Jr. with 11:46 left in the second quarter. Iowa responded with its TD drive later in the quarter to cut the deficit to 9-7 and never trailed by more than eight points the rest of the game.

The Hawkeyes briefly took a 16-15 lead with 1:51 remaining in the fourth quarter before ultimately falling 18-16 on a 39-yard FG by Oregon kicker Atticus Sappington.

Autzen Stadium will be rocking on a Saturday night as Oregon fans experience their first-ever home playoff game. JMU must withstand the initial emotional surge fueled by the crowd and avoid falling into an early hole. The longer the Dukes keep the game close, the more tension will creep into both the Oregon sideline and the stadium as the possibility of a JMU upset begins to feel real.

Final Verdict

If this were a best-of-seven series, nearly everyone would pick Oregon to sweep JMU. The good news for the Dukes is that they only need one win to advance, and Iowa has already shown them a path to get there.

If JMU wants to get greedy, they may want to awaken the football gods and hope for bad weather to level the playing field. The Ducks struggled at home in difficult conditions against a struggling Wisconsin (4-8) team on Oct. 25, leading just 14-0 entering the fourth quarter.

Upsets do not announce themselves. They arrive when a team believes it can win and is willing to pull off the unthinkable. And if the Ducks ever appear to move in slow motion on Saturday night, do not worry. JMU fans will be quick to remind everyone they noticed it first.

The Dukes’ upset chances are picking up speed, so keep an eye on the underdogs from Virginia on Dec. 20 if they execute the Iowa blueprint to perfection.