Three Reasons Lincoln Riley Has Hottest Seat in College Football

When Riley arrived in 2022, USC surged to an 11–3 record and a Cotton Bowl berth. The arrow was pointing straight up. Since then? A pedestrian 15–15 record over two years.

Oddsmakers agree: FanDuel set the Trojans’ win total at 7.5, while multiple outlets project between seven and eight wins.

USC hasn’t been left out of the preseason AP Top 25 Poll since 2019, yet this year, the Trojans are on the outside looking in.

Joel Klatt, speaking on The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast, didn’t mince words: “He’s going to have to win this year… You can’t go 7–5 again. It just isn’t acceptable.”

That statement reflects what many in L.A. are feeling—Riley’s honeymoon ended a long time ago.

2. Defensive Woes and Late-Game Collapses

USC's defense took a step forward in 2024, trimming its scoring average from 34.4 points allowed in 2023 to just 24.1 last fall. That’s a 10-point swing and a big reason the Trojans managed to stay competitive in more games.

But improvement doesn’t equal excellence. USC still ranked near the bottom nationally in sacks per game, gave up a 68 percent completion rate for opposing quarterbacks, and surrendered leads late in multiple contests.

College football analyst Josh Pate zeroed in on USC’s inability to finish: “What if it’s just a bunch of one-possession games again? Their record in one-possession games isn’t random… USC couldn’t close out games last year. Has something changed?”

That inability to execute late was the story of 2024. Multiple games slipped away in the fourth quarter, raising questions about conditioning, culture, and game management.

MORE: Big Ten Coaches Reveal Season Sleep Schedule: Lincoln Riley’s Response Stands Out

MORE: How USC’s Caleb Williams Could Be the Biggest Winner of NFL Week 1

MORE: Three Biggest Shocks of USC Trojans Depth Chart For Season Opener vs. Missouri State

MORE: USC Trojans Make Surprising Move Along Defensive Line: First Official Depth Chart

MORE: USC Trojans Coaches, Veterans Reveal First Impression of Five-Star Recruit RJ Sermons

3. Pressure from the Media, Fanbase, and Buyout Realities

Make no mistake: Riley’s reported buyout of $80 million is the only thing insulating him from a swift dismissal. But money won’t silence boosters, national pundits, or a restless fanbase.

On The Josh Pate College Football Show, Pate called USC’s Week 5 trip to Illinois a “hinge game” for the season: “If USC wins, you’re talking about a 5–0 team getting ready for Michigan. If they lose, things could spiral.”

If Riley posts another middle-of-the-pack year, no buyout number will stop the temperature from boiling over.

The Bottom Line

Lincoln Riley’s seat isn’t just warm—it’s scorching. He has the résumé, the salary, and the recruiting chops of a championship coach, but the results haven’t matched.

Unless USC drastically outperforms its modest win projections, solves its late-game issues, and proves itself ready for the Big Ten gauntlet, Riley could soon become the latest example that even superstar hires can flame out in L.A.

This season is make-or-break. Anything less than a statement year, and the “hot seat” label will no longer be speculative—it’ll be reality.

• Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 
• If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.