Three reasons why Mississippi State fans should be worried about Texas

Two months ago, this Saturday’s game between No. 22 Texas and Mississippi State was looked at as a game to be played as a formality.

The Longhorns, the preseason No. 1 team in the nation with Arch Manning at quarterback and an elite defense, were such big favorites it was one of the least winnable games for the Bulldogs this season.

However, only one thing in the above paragraph turned out to be true and now there’s a realistic chance the Bulldogs send Texas home with a loss and pounding headache (because of the cowbells).

But the odds favor Texas for three reasons and we’ll begin with the one true thing in that paragraph.

Longhorns’ elite defense

Texas is still alive in the hunt for a spot in the College Football Playoff because it has what could be the best defense in the nation. Just look at the stats:

• Total Defense: 279.1 ypg (3rd in SEC, 12th in FBS)
• Scoring Defense: 11.3 ppg (2nd in SEC, 3rd in FBS)
• Rushing Defense: 83.3 ypg (2nd in SEC, 5th in FBS)
• Pass Yards Allowed: 195.9 (8th in SEC, 39th in FBS)
• Pass Yards per Comp.: 12.55 (5th in SEC, 41st in FBS)
• Teams Sacks per Game: 3 (4th in SEC, 12th in FBS)
• Redzone Defense: .727 (2nd in SEC, 11th in FBS)

You name it, the Longhorns are either one of the best at it or, at worse, just really good at doing it.

The sacks should be most alarming considering Mississippi State is allowing defenses an average of 2.86 sacks per game and gave up 14 sacks in three SEC games.

Don’t expect a shootout on Saturday.

Bulldogs’ rushing defense

Texas may not have to challenge the Bulldogs’ pass defense much if it can match the success other teams have had running the ball.

Mississippi State’s rushing defense ranks 14th in the SEC and 97th amongst FBS teams with 164 yards allowed per game.

The Longhorns haven’t ran the ball very well this season, but neither had Florida’s and the Gators just ran for 172 yards last week.

Texas’s starting running back, CJ Baxter, has missed four games this season which has been a contributing factor to its struggles on offense. Quintrevion Wisner is the Longhorns’ leading rusher with 22 yards and two touchdowns.

Manning has been a running threat, too. He has 181 rushing yards and a team-high six rushing touchdowns.

Mississippi State is better at stopping runs than it was a year ago, but teams are still finding success on the ground.

The Bulldogs did hold Tennessee to only 131 rushing yards, but gave up 251 to Arizona State and 299 to Texas A&M.

Texas would be foolish to not at least try to run the ball early and often.

Texas has more to lose

If Mississippi State does end up winning Saturday’s game, the Longhorns can wave goodbye to its CFP hopes.

Texas would have losses to No. 1 Ohio State (a respectable loss), Florida (the Gators’ talent showed up for an entire game) and Mississippi State.

The Bulldogs have played well enough this season. It’s no joke to say they’re two plays away from being 6-1 right now. But as Lebby said Monday to people who point that out to him, they’re not 6-1. They’re 4-3.

Combine even a close loss to Mississippi State and needing overtime to beat Kentucky, and the Longhorns only path to the CFP becomes winning the SEC championship.

A win, though, sets up Texas to make a statement in the final four games against No. 10 Vanderbilt, No. 5 Georgia, Arkansas and No. 3 Texas A&M.

A loss for the Bulldogs won’t end their chance at reaching six wins and going to a bowl game. They still have a game against Arkansas (that should already be considered a must-win) and three more games against teams ranked in the top 15.

So, Texas has more to lose although not by much.