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UCF's Keys to Success Versus Florida

Originally posted on FanNation Inside The Knights
By Brian Smith | Last updated 12/8/21

The UCF Knights will be taking on the Florida Gators in the Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl at Raymond James Stadium on Dec. 23 at 7pm. Both teams have a lot to play for, as UCF wants to try and prove it has the best team in Florida, while the Gators would like to open Billy Napier’s head coaching career with a bowl game win in his first game.

The Gators are favored in this game for a handful of reasons, but they have some weaknesses that UCF should look to exploit in order to have their best chance at a win. Obviously with a new coach, some of those weaknesses could potentially be patched, but the Gators have some personnel issues that can not be fixed by coaching alone. Let’s take a look at what other teams have done in order to have success vs Florida.

Focus on the Run Game Offensively

In the Gators’ 6 losses this season, only 1 quarterback they faced threw for over 200 yards, and that was Heisman favorite Bryce Young. Teams were beating the Gators with the run. As a starter, UCF quarterback Mikey Keene has only thrown for 200 yards three times.

This means the Knights need to make sure they have the run game working for them from the opening snap. That’s not to say UCF does not need a solid game from Keene. He will still need to make some plays down the stretch in order for the offense to operate smoothly.

If Isaiah Bowser is healthy enough to play for the bowl game, there is a pretty good chance UCF will be able to run the ball effectively. He has been a catalyst for the offense when he is able to get on the field, and makes a great duo between him and Johnny Richardson.

Bowser is the definition of a bruising running back, he excels at breaking tackles and pushing the pile forward. In the event that Bowser does not play, the speedy Richardson and Mark-Anthony Richards will receive the bulk of the carries.

Antony-Richards is probably the likely third down and goal line running back if Bowser does not play. Richardson is a chunk-yardage running back, and if he is able to find any amount of daylight vs Florida, he will have explosive plays for UCF even if Bowser does play.

Win the Turnover Battle

Florida has not won the turnover battle in a single one of their losses this season. If guys like Big Kat Bryant and Tremon Morris-Brash can get enough pressure on Florida QB Emory Jones, it should be able to force him into making a few bad decisions and leading to at least one interception. He has thrown 13 interceptions during the 2021 season.

UCF has a plus-six turnover margin on the year, good for top 30 in the nation. On the other side, Florida has a minus-nine turnover margin, tied for 121st. Florida will make some mistakes, and it is up to the Knights to take advantage of that by taking the ball away. Ideally, UCF will need to score off any Florida turnovers to keep the momentum on their side.

Third Down Success

UCF has not done a great job on offense or defense when it comes to third downs, it has been in the middle of the pack on third down all season.

Offensively, the Knights could only convert on 37% of their third downs, 81st in the FBS. That is a category that must improve during the Gasparilla Bowl to give themselves a chance. UCF will need to avoid first and second down sacks and tackles for loss, as well as penalties, in order to set up some third and short opportunities.

On third and long, Keene needs to do a better job of making his reads and going through his progressions. He also needs to be as comfortable in the pocket as possible, we’ve seen him bail from the pocket early quite a few times this year on third downs, and trying to do too much.

Defensively, the Knights were better than the offense on third down, but not by much. They ranked 67th in the country allowing a 39% conversion rate. Missed assignments, missed tackles, and simply not enough timely big plays allowed for the conversion rate to be higher than it has been.

Final Note

UCF has a lot to prove in the Gasparilla Bowl. Provided it can play a clean, efficient game on both sides of the ball, the Knights should be able to give Florida everything it can handle.

For UCF coverage and recruiting information go to: The Daily Knight podcast. For more college football, UCF and recruiting information, go to Twitter: @fbscout_florida and @UCF_FanNation, as well as my YouTube Channel and Instagram page. Like and Subscribe!