USC vs. Louisville: Holiday Bowl prediction, pick

College Football Bowl Season brings us a first-ever matchup between schools looking to end their respective seasons on a high note as USC faces off against No. 15 Louisville on Wednesday in the 2023 Holiday Bowl game. Lincoln Riley leads the Trojans to their fourth appearance in this game on a three-game losing streak, while Jeff Brohm takes his ACC runner-up Cardinals on a journey to finish with 11 wins for the first time in a decade.

• USC: Was the preseason No. 6 team, but finished 7-5 behind another poor defensive effort
• Louisville: Unranked in the preseason, the Cardinals played for the ACC title and won 7 ACC games for the first time since 2016

USC vs. Louisville prediction, preview

When: Wed., Dec. 27
Time: 8 p.m. Eastern
TV: Fox network

Holiday Bowl game odds

Courtesy of SI Sportsbook

Line: Louisville -6.5
Total: 58.5 points
Moneyline: USC +210 | UL -250
FPI pick: USC 53.4% to win

What to watch for

1. Change at QB. Caleb Williams appears to have opted out of the bowl game for USC, meaning we'll get a long look at reserve quarterback Miller Moss in his first start. The redshirt sophomore has played in 11 games over three years, hitting 73 percent of his throws for 542 yards and three touchdowns with no turnovers. Moss lines up against a Louisville defense that is 20th nationally by allowing just under 20 points per game.

2. Battle at the line. Given its relative inexperience at quarterback, USC will want to run the ball early. But the ground game wasn't as prolific as the passing attack, ranking 88th nationally in total production. MarShawn Lloyd won't play, meaning we'll see more of Austin Jones, who had 417 yards and 7 TDs while averaging 5.6 yards per carry. Louisville is among college football's better run defenses, ranking 12th nationally, allowing just 3.32 yards per run and only 102 yards per game on average.

3. Louisville's losses. The Cardinals were top 50 in total offense, stacking up 49 touchdowns and over 420 yards per game, but will go without two of their top skill threats, as receiver Jamari Thrash and back Jawhar Jordan are out. With them go 27% of their receiving production and 49% of their rushing output. But the Cards still have quarterback Jack Plummer, who was 2nd in the ACC with over 3,000 passing yards. This is the moment when USC's maligned defensive front needs to generate pressure and make plays behind the line.

USC vs. Louisville prediction

Say what you will about USC's defense, and it's all true — the unit is 120th in scoring, 115th against the pass, 114th against the run, 105th on third down, 121st in the red zone, 117th in first downs surrendered, and 119th in production — this team still has enough pop to move the ball downfield with some regularity.

But that defense will still lack for consistent effort against a Louisville attack that wants to move the ball in the air, and if it can generate enough momentum early in the game, USC won't have the ability to stop it, and its offensive personnel losses may preclude a chance at a comeback to compensate for any early deficit.

College Football HQ picks...

• Louisville wins 34-26
• Covers the spread
• And hits the over