USC vs. LSU odds, lines, expert picks, best bets and preview for college football Sunday

Both outfits will be replacing their Heisman quarterbacks with in-house, inexperienced options.

LSU replaces the dynamic Jayden Daniels with Garrett Nussmeier, a more typical pocket-passer who has been in Baton Rouge waiting for his chance. USC will turn to Miller Moss to replace Caleb Williams. Moss earned his shot with a tremendous bowl game and a strong offseason.

Both went out and splurged on expensive new coordinators to fix their disastrous defenses.

LSU plucked Louisiana native Blake Baker out of Missouri, where he led top-20 defenses for the Tigers, and made him the highest-paid coordinator in the sport. USC stole D’Anton Lynn from UCLA after getting an up-close look at how he built a fearsome front four for a crosstown rival.

So, which team exits this game like the happy Mourning, nodding their head in fulfillment? And which leaves Las Vegas shaking their head in disappointment?

LSU is favored in this matchup, and the total is one of the highest on the board for the weekend. We polled 15 members of our college football staff to get some consensus leans. Let’s see how we collectively would play this blockbuster matchup.

USC +4.5

By John Feltman

It seems that our staff is leaning toward backing the Trojans in the matchup. It turns out that I certainly agree with them — but I’m surprised nobody picked a coin-flip with such a short spread.

The reasoning behind the USC love is clear to me. LSU's defense is a mess. The Tigers are coming off a 2023 season in which their defense clearly held them back.

LSU was among the worst teams in the nation in Defensive Success Rate, EPA per Play and Quality Drives Allowed. If the opponent had a competent offense last season, it pretty much had its way with this group.

Meanwhile, it seems like the market is underselling the Trojans here. Caleb Williams departs, but now begins the Miller Moss era. Moss was a highly-touted quarterback prospect, and I don't think there's as much of a drop-off as the market perceives.

Instead, the biggest change for the Trojans was bringing in former UCLA defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn.

Lynn turned UCLA's defense from a putrid unit into one of the best run-stoppers in the entire nation. Lynn is a massive upgrade over Alex Grinch, and I expect a much better USC defense from the get-go.

The Trojans are oddly in a similar spot as the Tigers, as they also struggled on the defensive side of the ball last season. I think the DC hire is critical for the matchup, and I expect a much stronger USC defense in 2024.

The Trojans should not be 4.5-point underdogs here, so I’m happy to snag that before it drops any lower.

Pick: USC +4.5

Over 64.5

By Dan Keegan

The majority of our team is backing the over 64 in this headlining matchup.

Both teams were over machines last year — if you bet the over in all 26 games of the 2023 season for these two squads, you would've gone 23-3.

I mean, I could stop right there. But there are actual analytic-based football reasons to support the obvious choice.

Both teams are riddled with offensive talent, and their new quarterbacks are stepping into outstanding offensive infrastructures.

While they took steps to address their defenses in the offseason with new coordinators, it will take time, and they will need reps against non-top-five offenses to get up to speed.

USC will rely on an electric corps of playmakers to execute Lincoln Riley’s offense — arguably the best scheme in college football over the past decade.

Woody Marks is the running back after transferring from Mississippi State, where he averaged almost five yards per carry despite an anemic group around him.

Sophomore wide receivers Duce Robinson and Zachariah Branch are ready for stardom after getting their feet wet as freshmen. Branch, in particular, has drawn comparisons to Trojan legend Reggie Bush as an all-purpose monster.

LSU also boasts an embarrassment of riches offensively.

The program has printed quality wide receivers, and new quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has been waiting for his breakout. LSU has one of the best offensive lines in the sport, as both tackles are All-America candidates and early NFL Draft picks next summer.

But all the talent in the world doesn’t matter if you can’t execute.

And boy, do these teams execute, especially in their scoring opportunities. Both finished in the top seven nationally in Finishing Drives a season ago — and both defenses finished outside of the top 50 in the same metric.

Turning threes into sevens is the most surefire way to cash an over.

Even if some of the key players are charging, our staff trusts that these teams know how to put the ball in the end zone and will do so with frequency on Sunday night.

Pick: Over 64.5

About the Author

Action Network is a team of seasoned sports betting experts specializing in a broad range of sports, from the NFL and NBA to less mainstream options like cricket and darts. Their staff includes well-known analysts like Sean Koerner and Stuckey, recognized for their accurate predictions and deep sports knowledge. The team is dedicated to delivering expert analysis and daily best bets, ensuring bettors are well-informed across all major sports.

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