USC vs. Nebraska prediction: What the analytics say

Another big test awaits Lincoln Riley and No. 23 USC on the road on Saturday, this time against unranked Nebraska in college football’s Week 10 action in the Big Ten.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

USC vs. Nebraska predictions

The models still have confidence in the Trojans to get past the Cornhuskers, but in what could be another close game for this squad.

USC is projected to win the game outright in the majority 72.1 percent of the computer’s simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Nebraska as the presumptive winner in the remaining 27.9 percent of sims.

In total, the Trojans come out on top in 14,420 of the simulations of the game, while the Cornhuskers edged out Southern Cal in the other 5,580 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

USC is projected to be 5.9 points better than Nebraska on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Who is favored?

USC is a 6.5 point favorite against Nebraska, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 58.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for USC at -220 and for Nebraska at +180 to win outright.

College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How good is the prediction model?

How accurate was the College Football Power Index computer prediction model last Saturday?

Projecting the games a week ago, the Power Index models correctly predicted 79.2 percent of all games and hit 44.4 percent against the spread.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.