USC vs. TCU Prediction: Alamo Bowl Game Preview

Why USC Will Win The Alamo Bowl

Getting Maiava back was a boon for the Trojans after he led the Big Ten in passing yards in 2025. He also has a knack for putting up big numbers in bowl games. Maiava threw for three scores in a loss to Kansas as a freshman at UNLV and he followed that up with a four-touchdown performance in a win over Texas A&M last December. This time around, he’ll be without Biletnikoff Award winner Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane, easily his top two receivers. That means wide receiver Tanook Hines, who had a breakout game against Oregon, can expect an uptick in targets. Only 11 teams averaged more points than USC (36.5), and four of them made the CFP.

The Trojans’ run game leveled up this season thanks to the one-two punch of King Miller and Waymond Jordan. Miller has gone over 100 yards four times this season, including in the regular-season finale against UCLA. Jordan, who’s been out since October, did so twice in just six appearances. He reportedly has a chance to return against a TCU front that held up well against the run. Expect Miller to factor into the receiving game, especially with tight end Lake McRee also out.

USC’s defense was less of a liability this season than it has been in the past. The Trojans held more than half of their opponents under 20 points and defended the pass particularly well. Star linebacker Eric Gentry is out, but Lynn could have safety Bishop Fitzgerald and edge rusher Anthony Lucas available against a quarterback who hasn’t started a game since 2023. Run defense was an issue for USC, but TCU didn’t show much of a semblance of a run game until recently.

Why TCU Will Win The Alamo Bowl

The Horned Frogs’ run game turned the corner in its last two games as Jeremy Payne became more involved. TCU had two 100-yard rushers in 10 games before Payne hit that mark in back-to-back contests to close out the regular season. He also ran for 174 in the finale. Being able to lean on the ground game will take some pressure off Seals, who’s thrown six passes all season and last played in September.

Though he hasn’t played meaningful snaps in some time, Seals did start 22 games across three seasons at Vanderbilt. Accuracy was an issue during his tenure with the Commodores, but he will have a big-play threat at the ready in McAlister. Tight ends coach Mitch Kirsch, who’s calling plays with Briles gone, will manufacture touches for the best all-around skill-position player in the game.

Defense was not a strong suit for coach Sonny Dykes’ squad this season. Despite the play of standout safety Bud Clark, who’s expected to play in the bowl game, TCU still had one of the worst passing defenses in the Big 12. That’s a problem against a passer the caliber of Maiava. The Horned Frogs hang their hat on their run defense, even though they gave up some big performances down the stretch. That group was also disruptive with 19 takeaways.

Alamo Bowl Prediction: USC 31, TCU 24

For all the moving parts in this game, the Trojans should have the advantage with Maiava at quarterback against a Horned Frogs defense that was a liability for much of the season. TCU will be able to move the ball with Seals under center and a newfound run game, but not well enough to keep pace with USC’s offense.

ATS: USC -5.5
O/U: Under 56.5