USC's College Football Playoff Chances Will Surprise People

USC has odds of 59 percent to make the 2026 playoff according to the PFSN playoff meter. These are the fourth best odds among Big Ten teams.

Ohio State Buckeyes: 68 percent
Oregon Ducks: 67 percent
Indiana Hoosiers: 64 percent
USC Trojans: 59 percent
Michigan Wolverines: 42 percent

USC’s chances to make the playoff being over 50 percent comes as a surprise based on the fact that all three teams ahead of them in the Big Ten are on their regular season schedule. The Trojans will welcome in Oregon on Sept. 26 and Ohio State on Oct. 31 to the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. USC will then take it on the road to play the Indiana Hoosiers on Nov. 14. 

All three of these teams made it to the playoff last season. Indiana won the national championship, Oregon made it to the semifinal, and Ohio State made it to the quarterfinal. All of them have national championship aspirations again in 2026. 

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Indiana and Ohio State are both tied for the best odds to win the national championship at +700. Oregon has the fifth best odds at +700. Further down the list are the Trojans, tied for the 12th best odds with the Oklahoma Sooners and Ole Miss Rebels at +3500. 

For USC to make the playoff, it’s very possible they will need to win 10 games. That means winning at least one of their games against Oregon, Ohio State, and Indiana. 

USC Seeking First Playoff Appearance

2026 is the fifth season for coach Lincoln Riley with USC. The Trojans knocked on the door of the playoff in Riley’s first season at the helm in 2022 by going 11-1 in the regular season before losing in the Pac-12 championship. 

Unfortunately for USC, this would have been enough to make the current 12-team playoff format, but that was still two years away from being implemented at that time. USC has not played in a conference championship game since. 

USC wasn’t anywhere near playoff contention in 2023 and 2024 and went 7-5 and 6-6 in the regular season. 2025 was a step in the right direction. USC went 9-3 and had playoff hopes entering their second to last game of the season.

Expectations will be higher in 2026 with Riley being in year five and also starting quarterback Jayden Maiava returning to the Trojans for another season. USC also landed the No. 1 ranked 2026 recruiting class.

Signs are pointing towards USC finally being able to break through and join the party in the playoff. Will they be able to make that a reality?

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