UTSA vs. USF: Preview and Prediction

First Downs and Finish

After lighting up a bad Colorado State (2-3, 0-1 Pac-12) defense for 59 points, the Roadrunners struggled to score points against Rice including going scoreless in the second half. UTSA converted six out of 16 third downs in the game, bringing their overall successful conversion rate to 32.8 percent, good for 118th in FBS. The Roadrunners also rank towards the bottom at 96th in the number of three-and-outs with that occurring on 22 percent of their possessions.

Traylor is well aware of the room for growth as he said, “our offense has not been near what it’s capable of being” at a post-practice press conference. The Roadrunners need productive early downs to avoid third-and-long against a Bulls defense that only allows third-down conversions 32.8 percent of the time.

Finishing drives has been another problem: UTSA has scored touchdowns on just eight of its 16 red zone trips, including one of four against Rice. USF allows just 14.6 points per game, good for 19th nationally, and has not allowed more than 24 in a game this season.

Tale of Two Halves

UTSA has been the better first-half team, outscoring opponents 92-71 (+21), while USF has been outscored 47-44 (-3). The Bulls wake up after halftime with an 89-26 scoring edge (+63), compared with UTSA’s 65-60 margin (+5). USF’s weak spot has been the second quarter, while UTSA has scored its fewest points in the third.

The Bulls overcame a 10-point deficit with 4:59 remaining at Army (2-2, 1-1 American) and entered the fourth quarter trailing Bowling Green (1-4, 1-0 MAC) 6–0 before winning. USF has struggled recently, managing just 27 points and 533 total yards over its past two games against Bowling Green and Temple. UTSA will need to avoid becoming complacent if they jump out to a first-half lead given USF’s second-half comeback abilities.

Closing Thoughts

UTSA will lean heavily into Hartline’s comments about the crowd noise. Expect that video to be played on the scoreboard prior to kickoff. This will match the approach the Roadrunners took with Sumrall’s comments last year prior to the Tulane game. Don’t be surprised if Traylor brings up Hartline’s comments in the postgame press conference as fuel for his team’s motivation and performance.

Productive early downs and better red zone execution will be key to reaching 34 points against this defense. Look for UTSA to do both and ride the Alamodome’s energy to its fifth win.

Prediction: UTSA 34, USF 20.