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Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Florida Gators Prediction and Odds: Can the Commodores Snap 4-Game Losing Streak in the Swamp and Vanquish the Gators?

Originally posted on Gridiron Heroics | By Alec Musa | Last updated 10/5/23

The Vanderbilt Commodores (2-4) will visit the Florida Gators (3-2) on Saturday afternoon. Vanderbilt is sliding, losing four straight, including falling to the Missouri Tigers 38-21 in last Saturday’s contest. The Commodores got lit up on defense, allowing 395 passing yards and four scores to Missouri quarterback Brady Cook. Meanwhile, the then #22 Florida Gators fell to the Kentucky Wildcats last Saturday 33-14. Kentucky’s Ray Davis took 26 carries for 280 yards and three scores against the Gators.

Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Florida Gators Odds and Match Details

Team	Spread	Total	MoneyLine
Vanderbilt	+19 -110	O52 -110	+700
Florida	-19 -110	U52 -110	-1000
Odds Subject to Change

Fixture: Vanderbilt @ Florida

Date and Time: October 7, 2023, at 4:00 p.m. EST

Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainsville, Florida

Field Surface: Bermuda Grass

Weather: Partially Cloudy, 65 degrees

Key Stats

Vanderbilt Commodores

The Vanderbilt Commodores score 31 points per game. They do a good job throwing touchdowns despite completing just 55% of their passes. However, the run attack has gotten hampered in the early part of the season. Vandy is averaging just 3.5 yards per attempt. The Commodores are in the bottom third of the SEC in yards per play while leading the conference in turnovers committed.

Vanderbilt allows an SEC-worst 33.3 points per game. Opposing passers have lit up the Vandy secondary, completing 65% of their passes for 261 yards per game. The front seven also coughs up 4.2 rushing yards per carry on 35 attempts per game. The Commodores are in the bottom third of the SEC in yards allowed per game and yards allowed per play.

Florida Gators

The Florida Gators score 25 points per game, the lowest average in the SEC. However, quarterback Graham Mertz completes a conference-best 79% of his passes. He has also thrown for 1,220 yards and six scores against two picks in five games. The Gators have struggled to run the ball in 2023, averaging just 3.9 yards per rush attempt. They are near the middle of the SEC in yards per game, yards per play, and turnovers committed.

The Gators allow 17.4 points per game, the fourth-best mark in the SEC. They hold opposing passers to an SEC-low 144 passing yards per game while they complete less than 57% of their passes. However, the front seven has been suspect, allowing 4.4 rushing yards per attempt. Florida has forced just one turnover this season, the lowest in the conference.

Game Prediction

I like Vanderbilt to cover the spread in this contest. The Florida Gators have struggled on offense this season, explicitly breaking off big plays. Meanwhile, the Vandy defense could be better, but they are decent against the run, a weakness of Florida. The spread is nearly three touchdowns, a significant number for a suspect Florida offense to cover, even if it’s against a poor Vandy squad. So, let’s roll with the Commodores against the spread in this SEC tilt.