Vegas Sets the Bar: Big 12 Win Totals Loaded With Parity

The middle of the league is packed tight, with eight teams clustered between 7.5 and 6.5 wins, creating a logjam of potential bowl teams and dark horse contenders.

Oklahoma State, however, finds itself tied for the lowest win total on the board at five wins—and honestly, that feels about right. After a 3–9 season and a complete overhaul of the coaching staff—including new coordinators on both sides of the ball—the Cowboys are in full reset mode. Replacing Ollie Gordon and stabilizing quarterback play will be tall tasks in a conference that punishes uncertainty.

Meanwhile, Texas Tech and Kansas State look poised to cash in on continuity and portal additions. Joey McGuire has loaded up on both trenches, and K-State’s floor under Chris Klieman remains high—even in a league with zero room for error.

At the bottom, UCF and West Virginia round out the 5-win crowd, with both programs looking to make improvements in their first year under new—but—familiar regimes.

The top-line takeaway? The Big 12 is wide open—and Circa knows it.