Virginia Bowl Projections After Their Big Upset Win Over Florida State

If the Hoo's end up in this situation, they would face one of the most legitimate quarterbacks in the country. Yes, Jos Hoover is coming off a poor performance in a loss to Arizona State but he is a talented signal caller. Last season, Hoover threw for just under 4,00 yards and 27 touchdowns to just 11 interceptions. Now in his junior year, the Texas native continues to improve, averaging a career-high 9+ yards per completion.

TCU wide receiver Eric McAlister is also coming into his own after coming over from Boise State two years ago. 2023 and 2024 were solid extremely good seasons from McAllister but now he looks ready to pop off in his senior year. He is on pace for a career year in terms of catches, yards, and touchdowns.

ESPN's Mark Schlabach: Duke's Mayo Bowl (No. 24 UVA vs No. 16 Vanderbilt)

This would be a tough matchup for Virginia. Vandy quarterback Diego Pavia is one of the best players in the nation so far in 2025. Pavia has the third best QBR in the country at 88.4, while averaging over 9.5 yards per completion. The senior is building off a 20 touchdown, four interception season with his most efficient season, by far. Pavia also leads the offense in rushing yards while averaging over six yards per rush.

Vanderbilt defensive end Miles Capers has proved himself to be one of the most explosive edge rushers in the NCAA this season. Capers has 14 tackles, 3.5 sacks (a career-high), a forced fumble and a fumble recovery. The senior has also recorded at least three tackles and one sack in each of the last two games.

CBS Sports: Gasparilla Bowl (No. 24 UVA vs Memphis)

This is the easiest hypothetical matchup for UVA. Memphis ranks the lowest of the three in ESPN's FPI rankings at 36. Memphis is 5-0 but the level of competition just does not match up to either of these other two teams or Virginia, for that matter. I would say Arkansas or Tulane are the best team this program plays this year but even that is a step down.

On a positive note for Memphis, they have had an incredible dominant rushing attack in 2025. The Tigers have three rushers already over at least 260 yards and two over 350 yards. Running back Sutton Smith is averaging a huge seven yards per carry, while quarterback Brandon Lewis has six rushing scores already. Back up running back Greg Desrosiers Jr. had a monster game last week against FAU, rushing for over 200 yards and three touchdowns.

Our projection

The board is wide open for Virginia after their win over Florida State.

UVA now has legitimate ACC Championship hopes after this game and could get one of the best bowl selections in the conference. While I am not quite ready to say that the Cavaliers are playoff contenders just yet, that is a possibility if they can keep winning ACC games.

I would say right now that the Pop Tarts Bowl or the Duke's Mayo Bowl is the one that I think is most likely right now. Not only did Virginia beat Florida State, but they have one of the easiest schedules in the country left remaining. 9-10 wins is certainly on the table for the Cavaliers this season.

If Virginia was able to make either one of those bowl games, either an SEC or Big 12 team would be waiting on the other side.