Virginia vs Coastal Carolina: Matchup Breakdown and Final Score Prediction

On the outside, the Cavaliers rebuilt with speed and experience. James Madison transfer Cam Ross brings quickness and versatility, coming off a season where he caught 37 passes for 443 yards and three touchdowns. Notre Dame graduate transfer Jayden Thomas and Purdue transfer Jahmal Edrine add size and polish, while a healthy Trell Harris is expected to contribute after missing most of 2024. Tight end Dakota Twitty, a converted wideout, is another option in the passing game.

Coastal’s defense is the biggest unknown. Jeremiah Johnson takes over as defensive coordinator after coming from Louisiana Tech, and he inherits a unit that ranked 10th in the Sun Belt in scoring defense last season. Linebacker Shane Bruce is the star, returning after 75 tackles in 2024, including 11 against Virginia. Wyatt Gedeon joins him in the middle and will step into a larger role. Up front, nose tackle Sawyer Goram-Welch provides size at 6’5, 305 pounds, and will test Virginia’s new-look interior line anchored by Brady Wilson and Noah Josey. In the secondary, Division II transfer Jacob Robinson was a ballhawk with six interceptions last year, while Miami transfer Myles Mooyoung adds depth at corner.

The most pivotal factor will be how effectively Virginia's skill players challenge a Coastal defense adapting under a new coordinator. If Virginia’s talent capitalizes and exposes Coastal’s uncertainties, it could set the tone for the game’s outcome.

Virginia Defense vs Coastal Carolina Offense

While much of the attention is on Virginia’s offense, the defense could determine how far this team goes. Defensive tackle Jahmeer Carter returns as the anchor up front, and defensive end Mitchell Melton should give the Hoos a significantly stronger pass rush then a season ago while safety Devin Neal brings a ton of game experience as he's played college football since 2020.

Last season, Virginia’s defense held Coastal to just 82 rushing yards, forcing the Chanticleers to become one-dimensional. That game turned when UVA controlled the line of scrimmage, limiting explosive plays on the ground. This time around, the challenge will be different, with Coastal breaking in a new offensive coordinator, Drew Hollingshead, and looking to find its identity. The Chanticleers are expected to play faster, but their success will depend on protecting MJ Morris as Emmett Brown is out, and avoiding obvious passing situations against a UVA defense that has upgraded its depth through the portal.

Overview

Both teams enter with questions. Virginia needs to prove its revamped roster can win in the ACC, while Coastal breaks in a new staff. The Cavaliers have more proven talent at quarterback and running back but must show they can close out games.

Bruce and Gedeon bring stability to Coastal, and Robinson could test Morris early. However, with new schemes and the challenge of playing a home opener at night, Coastal faces a tough matchup.

The lines of scrimmage will dictate the outcome of this game. If Virginia controls the run game and keeps Morris comfortable, they have too many weapons for Coastal to keep pace.

Final Score Prediction

Analytics and projections all lean toward Virginia. ESPN’s FPI gives the Cavaliers a 76 percent chance to win. SP+ projects Virginia by eight with a 69 percent win probability.

My pick: Virginia’s depth at the skill positions and the presence of Morris under center prove decisive. Taylor will run for 90+ yds in a ground-led offense, and Coastal will compete early, but UVA’s offensive balance and defensive front are too much.

Final Score: Virginia 34, Coastal Carolina 17