Virginia vs. Missouri Prediction: Gator Bowl Preview

Why Virginia Will Win

The Cavaliers won games every which way this season, and they were especially tough to beat in close games. UVA ripped off four consecutive one-score wins early in the year, including three overtime victories. Eventually, that late-game success regressed back to the mean at the worst possible time in an overtime loss to the Blue Devils with the ACC title on the line.

Two transfers turned the tide on offense this year for the Cavaliers as quarterback Chandler Morris and running back J’Mari Taylor earned All-ACC honors in their first year in Charlottesville. Morris’ raw stats weren’t eye-popping, but he provided the most efficient quarterback play UVA has seen in some time, and he occasionally made plays with his legs.

Taylor took over the backfield, becoming the program’s first 1,000-yard rusher since 2018. He also doubled as a safety net for Morris with 43 receptions, the second-most on the team. Expect him to be heavily involved in the passing game against Missouri if top wideout Trell Harris, who was injured in the ACC Championship Game, can’t go.

The Cavaliers also boast one of the best defenses in the ACC and excel against the pass. The secondary shouldn’t be threatened all that much by Zollers and Co. The run defense will be focused on slowing down Ahmad Hardy, something not many teams were able to do this season. Considering Virginia finished among the top 20 nationally in yards allowed per carry and rarely allowed long run plays, that might be the top matchup to watch in the Gator Bowl.

Why Missouri Will Win

The Tigers have more NFL-caliber talent on their roster, particularly up front with edge-rushers Damon Wilson II and Zion Young. And in Hardy, Missouri might just have the best player in the game. That advantage takes pressure off Zollers, considering that Pribula only threw seven passes in a two-score win over Arkansas in the season finale.

Virginia is a more formidable foe than the Razorbacks, but the Tigers likely will look to pound the rock and control the trenches to replicate that game script as much as possible. Missouri’s motivation to keep the ball on the ground also stems from injuries and opt-outs for their top pass-catchers, though wide receiver Kevin Coleman Jr. should be available.

The Tigers held eight opponents to 20 points or fewer this season, and they were one of the best teams in the country at getting after the quarterback. Missouri’s defense graded out well in all aspects, but it was especially strong against the run. Taylor will have his work cut out to earn yards on the ground.

Drinkwitz’s teams have won back-to-back bowl games, and another season of good turnout could extend that streak to three. This is a good opportunity for Zollers to prove himself on a big stage heading into 2026.

Gator Bowl Prediction: Missouri 28, Virginia 23

This game will be dictated by two highly productive defenses and strong run games, and Missouri has the advantage in both areas. While history is on the line for the Cavaliers, the Tigers' talent advantage will be the difference in Jacksonville.

ATS: Missouri -4
O/U: Over 44.5