Week 10 CFP Rankings: Did Notre Dame Help or Hurt Its Playoff Hopes?

Week 10 of the 2025 college football season came in without much hype but leaves after providing us with a slew of great games that had major College Football Playoff ramifications.

For some like Ohio State and Indiana, it was further validation for what we already know - they're great. But what about a team like Notre Dame? Were the Fighting Irish helped or hurt by Saturday's results, considering the Irish won ugly, and had teams in front of them in the AP Top 25 fall?

After 10 full weeks of play, here is my latest College Football Playoff projection. Buckle up, it's going to be an absolutely wild last few weeks of the regular season.

College Football Playoff Projections Following Week 10

Top Four Seeds, First Round Byes

1. Indiana
2. Alabama
3. Ohio State
4. Texas A&M

At this point its hard to see these teams stumbling before the conference championship games, and they all appear to have the best resumes going in. If anyone else is going to crack this top-four then they're going to need a bit of help.

Also, the more I see of Indiana, just wrecking people up and down the field regardless of location, the less I think it's just a given that Ohio State wins the Big Ten.

Middle Four Seeds, Host Home Playoff Games:

5. Georgia
6. Ole Miss
7. Oregon
8. Texas Tech

Georgia escaped with a victory over an upstart Florida team this weekend, but that's just how the Bulldogs are built under Kirby Smart. Ole Miss has a seemingly clear path to the CFP, but Oregon has a low-key challenging last few weeks that includes a trip to Iowa next week.

As for the Big 12? BYU has to travel to Texas Tech next week. The winner of that game is in the drivers seat to the CFP, as both could also meet again in the conference title if Texas Tech takes care of business.

Bottom Four Seeds, Last Four In

9. BYU
10. Virginia
11. Notre Dame
12. North Texas

If BYU can get a split with Texas Tech in the possible two remaining games, the Cougars are set up to make the Big 12 a two-bid league. Virginia is still unbeaten in ACC play despite falling to NC State earlier this year, as it was a non-conference game.

Notre Dame didn't look pretty but it keeps plowing ahead, winning its sixth-straight game. And North Texas beating an unbeaten Navy team Saturday makes its case over South Florida and James Madison a compelling one for the Group of Six bid.

Why Notre Dame over Miami?

Miami beat Notre Dame head-to-head and both have two losses. How can I rank Notre Dame ahead? Because this is built on predicting what happens in the weeks to come as well and I really think Notre Dame gets a win at Pittsburgh in a couple weeks while Miami will stumble again there down the stretch.

Other examples of two loss teams Notre Dame is ahead of: Oklahoma (has to go to Alabama), Vanderbilt (has to go to Tennessee), and several others with challenging tasks.

College Football Playoff Projection:

Seeding:

12. North Texas
11. Notre Dame
10. Virginia
9. BYU
8. Texas Tech
7. Oregon
6. Ole Miss
5. Georgia
4. Texas A&M
3. Ohio State
2. Alabama
1. Indiana

Bracket:

First Round:
8. Texas Tech over 9. BYU
7. Oregon over 10. Virginia
6. Ole Miss over 11. Notre Dame
5. Georgia over 12. North Texas

Quarterfinals:
1. Indiana over 8. Texas Tech
5. Georgia over 4. Texas A&M
3. Ohio State over 6. Ole Miss
2. Alabama over 7. Oregon

Semi-Finals:

1. Indiana over 5. Georgia
3. Ohio State over 2. Alabama

National Championship:

2. Ohio State over 1. Indiana

It's neck and neck and certainly not a guarantee that Notre Dame makes the College Football Playoff at 10-2, but when you look at the vast majority of current two-loss teams, the Irish have a significantly easier remaining path than almost all.

That said, if it plays like it did against Boston College the last four games, someone is going to knock Notre Dame off and keep it from returning to the CFP.