Week 12 FCS Football Preview & Predictions

As we do every week, we preview the biggest games of the weekend and make our official predictions.

Let's take a look at the biggest games of the Week 12 slate.

2025 Prediction Record: 126-33
2022-24 Record: 382-122

No. 17 South Dakota at No. 21 Southern Illinois

Kickoff: Noon CT (ESPN+)

This game may be a must-win for both teams. South Dakota is currently 7-4 (7-3 vs FCS), which includes ranked wins over North Dakota and SDSU. With a win, the Coyotes would be a lock at 8-4, but a loss would drop them to 7-5 and make Selection Sunday very uncomfortable. This is the final game for the Coyotes, who have a bye week on the final weekend of the season.

As for Southern Illinois, the Salukis are in a dangerous spot right now. They are 6-4 overall (5-3 vs FCS), but don't have a signature win, which means they probably need to win out to make the field. The Salukis have a non-Division I win too, which is another flaw with their resume. SIU will need a win this weekend, along with another ranked win over Illinois State next week, to secure an at-large bid.

South Dakota continues to play its best football when it matters most, winning five of its last six games, including two ranked wins. It all starts with running back L.J. Phillips Jr., who has been unbelievable this season. He's rushed for 1,464 yards and 14 touchdowns, averaging 133.1 yards per game. He's going to be the key to this game against a Southern Illinois defense that's allowing over 200 yards per game on the ground.

The Salukis have their own offensive superstar in quarterback DJ Williams, who has been spectacular this season. Williams has completed 63.6% of his passes for 2,384 yards, 18 touchdowns, and only four interceptions. He's added another 624 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground. Make no mistake, this offense runs through Williams, and if the Salukis are going to win, Williams needs to have another big performance.

I've been torn on this game all week because Southern Illinois should find success offensively, but South Dakota's rushing offense is going to be a matchup nightmare for SIU's defense. DJ Williams also has the ability to win the game on his own, but the Salukis have collapsed in the second half multiple times this year. South Dakota has constantly found ways to win, and I think the Coyotes will find a way to get it done on the road.

Prediction: South Dakota (31-24)

No. 14 Illinois State at No. 16 South Dakota State

Kickoff: 2 pm CT (ESPN+)

Another game with major postseason implications. South Dakota State has lost its last three games, needing to win one of its last two games to secure an at-large bid. The Jacks are 7-3 overall with two ranked wins over Youngstown State and Montana State. Would a 7-5 SDSU team make the field on a five-game losing streak? I don't think so, and even if they did, it would be a ton of nervous energy in Brookings on Selection Sunday.

Illinois State is not locked into the field yet at 7-3 overall (7-2 vs FCS), but one win in its last two games should secure an at-large bid. If the Redbirds can win both games, they'll have a strong case for a Top 16 seed or possibly make a push for a Top 8 seed. They will end the season against Southern Illinois next weekend.

Your guess is as good as mine on whether Chase Mason will return from injury this weekend. If he doesn't suit up, Jack Henry is expected to get the start. He played well last weekend, making some plays with his legs and hitting on a few key throws against South Dakota. Illinois State ranks last in the MVFC for passing defense, but will Henry, or whoever starts at quarterback, be able to take advantage?

Illinois State has a dangerous offensive attack, led by Tommy Rittenhouse and All-American Daniel Sobkowicz. Rittenhouse has completed 66.9% of his passes for 2,070 yards, 25 touchdowns, and only four interceptions. He's connected with Sobkowicz 42 times, totaling 613 yards and eight scores.

South Dakota State has allowed some explosive plays over the top, but has remained stout against the run. Illinois State's rushing attack features Victor Dawson and Wenkers Wright, who have combined for over 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns. If the Jacks can make the Redbirds one-dimensional, it'll go a long way in helping keep the pressure of their offense, which may need some time to gel.

I'll be honest, it's tough to gauge which SDSU team we'll see this weekend, regardless of whether Mason is available or not. Illinois State is a dangerous matchup, but I just can't see this SDSU team losing four straight games. The Jackrabbits are going to be desperate, and being at home should help this team find some much-needed momentum, which is why I'm going to lean towards South Dakota State here.

Prediction: South Dakota State (27-21)

No. 19 Lamar at No. 15 Stephen F. Austin

Kickoff: 4 pm CT (ESPN+)

Stephen F. Austin can secure its spot in the playoffs this weekend with a win. The Lumberjacks have won eight consecutive games since an early loss to Abilene Christian. Lamar rebounded with a huge ranked win over Southeastern Louisiana last week, giving the Cardinals another ranked win on their resume. They will likely only need to win one of their final two games to secure a postseason spot.

The Lumberjacks have been elite against the run, holding opponents to 65.5 yards per game, while also ranking No. 2 nationally in yards per carry allowed (2.01). A significant portion of this success has stemmed from generating negative plays, as the Lumberjacks have forced 89 tackles for loss, which is the second-most in the FCS. Will the Cardinals be able to find any success on the ground?

Lamar's offense has struggled to find its rhythm at times this season. The Cardinals rank in the bottom half of the conference in both total and scoring offense, which is something to watch against an elite SFA defense. This offense has battled through injuries at quarterback, but Robert Coleman (or Aidan McCown) will need to make a few key throws if Lamar is going to win this game. Keep an eye on Kyndon Fuselier, who leads Lamar with 362 receiving yards and four scores.

Stephen F. Austin quarterback Sam Vidlak missed last week's game, but is expected to return this weekend. If, for some reason, he's unable to go, Gavin Rutherford will step into the starting role, where he's thrown for nearly 400 yards and six touchdowns. The Lumberjacks have a dynamic 1-2 punch at wide receiver in Kylon Harris and Clayton Wayland. The duo has combined for over 1,000 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns this season.

I would expect a low-scoring game with these defenses playing so well, but I trust Stephen F. Austin's offense to make a play when it matters. On paper, the Lumberjacks should win this game comfortably, but Lamar has shown that games aren't played on paper, which is why I expect this game to come down to the final minutes.

Prediction: Stephen F. Austin (24-20)

No. 9 UC Davis at No. 3 Montana State

Kickoff: 9:30 pm CT (ESPN2)

Montana State is a lock for the playoffs, but the Bobcats can continue to make their push for a Top 2 seed with a win this weekend. It'll ultimately be decided next weekend in the Brawl of the Wild, but this is a key game and could give the Bobcats another ranked win for their resume. At 8-2 overall (8-1 vs the FCS), they are in a very good spot to secure a Top 8 seed with a win, regardless of what happens next weekend.

UC Davis is not locked into the field yet, still needing at least one win in its final two games to secure a spot. The Aggies are 7-2 overall (7-1 against FCS), but their no-contest could be costly if they lose their final two games, resulting in only seven Division I wins. If UC Davis wins both, they will most likely secure a Top 8 seed. That's how tight the bubble is this year. They will end the season against Sacramento State in a huge rivalry game, in which the Hornets could be fighting for their postseason hopes.

This is going to be a massive test for redshirt freshman Caden Pinnick. He's been spectacular this season, completing 70.8% of his passes for 1,987 yards, 20 touchdowns, and six interceptions. Not only is this one of the most hostile environments in the FCS, but the Bobcats also have one of the best defenses in the entire country. Is Pinnick ready to step into superstar status? We will find out on Saturday night.

As for Montana State's defense, the Bobcats lead the Big Sky in scoring defense (16.1), total defense (296.9), rushing defense (103.1), and passing defense (193.8). Since their loss to SDSU, the Bobcats have won eight consecutive games, outscoring those opponents 352-72. Safety Caden Dowler is a player to watch, leading the Bobcats with 60 tackles, while adding 4.5 TFLs and one interception.

Quarterback Justin Lamson has been outstanding over the past few weeks, but it's been the rushing attack that's really led to the recent dominance. Julius Davis continues to shine, posting a team-high 709 rushing yards and six touchdowns, averaging 7.4 yards per carry. After a slow start, Adam Jones has started to find his role again, rushing for 593 yards and a team-high nine touchdowns.

The UC Davis defense has been excellent in conference play, ranking Top 3 in total defense and scoring defense. The Aggies are going to need a big game from their defensive line. Keep an eye on Jacob Psyk, who leads the team with 13.5 tackles for loss, 7.5 sacks, and three forced fumbles. Jerrell Smith-Porter and Sam Goligoski are two other contributors who could play a big role on Saturday night.

I believe Montana State might be the hottest team in the FCS at the moment. One notable factor could be injuries. UC Davis has lost 15 players to season-ending injuries, including All-American safety Rex Connors. That's going to be a huge factor this weekend. Give me the Bobcats to pull away in the second half.

Prediction: Montana State (38-24)

Other Week 12 Predictions:

No. 7 Harvard 31, Penn 17

No. 8 Mercer 38, Chattanooga 20

No. 10 Villanova 27, Stony Brook 17

No. 11 Rhode Island 31, Maine 21

No. 22 Jackson State 31, Bethune-Cookman 14

Incarnate Word 34, No. 23 Southeastern Louisiana 31

No. 25 Western Carolina 42, ETSU 35

Central Connecticut State 28, Duquesne 20

Sacramento State 28, Idaho 24

Southern Utah 38, Central Arkansas 28