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- Dec 7, 2024; Atlanta, GA, USA; Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) practices before the 2024 SEC Championship game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images

WEEk 1 NCAA Football Parlay Picks; August 30, 2025

Originally posted on Total Apex Fantasy Sports
By Shawn Pettinati | Last updated Aug 28, 2025 4:53 PM ET

College football week one and a full slate of games is finally here. Last week’s NCAA football parlay resulted in a 1-2 ATS, and that is our exact season record. Loyal followers know we target games, seeing respected money, more precisely, reverse line movements, and those where the Vegas oddsmakers have heavy liability. In other words, the outcomes that the sportsbooks need to profit from on the day. We have three selections on tap for you this opening week and some additional leans based solely on the initial line movements. Betting lines discussed are the consensus at Vegas Insider and are subject to change.

NCAA FOOTBALL PARLAY LEG #1: Texas Longhorns +1.5 -110

Leading off the NCAA football parlay will be the top-ranked Texas Longhorns +1.5 over the #3 Ohio State Buckeyes. Two reasons for this opening selection, the first being that the Longhorns are in a revenge spot here, having lost 28-14 to the Buckeyes last season in the championship game back in January. And second, the presence of sharp money backing Texas. We spotted a burner line with both the public, but more telling, the respected bettors backing the Longhorns. That money has moved Texas from +3 down to +1.5.

Texas has won its last five SU on the road and nine of ten. Beating a perennial power like Ohio State will obviously be no easy task, but keep in mind they are a mediocre 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games at home. The dog is barking in this one, Texas Longhorns +1.5 for play number one!

NCAA FOOTBALL PARLAY LEG #2: Missouri State-USC 1H over 33.5 -110

The middle leg of our NCAA Football parlay features the Missouri State Bears-USC Trojans first-half total over 33.5. This is one of our betting edge plays we target. We look to target a heavy favorite with a high implied team total. The Trojans look to improve their offense under Lincoln Riley in 2025 and should start here.

USC sports a hefty 48.5 implied team total and should be able to score against the inferior Bears’ defense with an expected weak secondary. Missouri State is making the jump up to the FBS level and allowed 45 points per game in its final three games of 2024. We like to USC offense to roll early, Trojans-Bears first half total over 33.5 for play number two!

NCAA FOOTBALL PARLAY LEG #3: Clemson Tigers -2.5 Alternate Spread

Sep 21, 2024; Clemson, South Carolina, USA; Clemson Tigers quarterback Cade Klubnik (2) runs for a first down against North Carolina State Wolfpack linebacker Caden Fordham (10) during the second quarter at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Ruinard-Imagn Images

Closing out our NCAA Football parlay will be the #4 Clemson Tigers over the ninth-ranked LSU Tigers. In a rare play for us, we are backing a favorite here, but it comes with good reason. The sharps are on Clemson here; the Tigers are seeing just 40% of the tickets and 26% of the money. However, the line has climbed a full point to -3.5, and in some books that line is up to -4.

We will follow the respected money as well and play Clemson, who is 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS in the last 10 at home. On the other sideline, LSU is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 on the road and 4-6 ATS in the last 10 as a underdog. We will buy the half point down to get on the betting edge. Clemson Tigers -2.5 for play number three!

Additional Leans: Southern Miss, Fla Atlantic, Northwestern

FINAL THOUGHTS:

Our NCAA football parlay provides our followers with three individual wagers. We will play these picks SU and then sprinkle some on both an ATS and Moneyline parlay. Remember, the hit rate on a three-team parlay is about 6-1, and parlays in general are just not a long-term profitable betting strategy. Hitting on the parlay is simply icing on the cake. We try to avoid public plays, which tend to be the betting favorites. Please follow us on X and Facebook as the College Football season moves toward the National Championship. Let’s get a successful season going and get you three winners. And remember to: Follow or Fade!