Week 8 Nevada College Pick'em Contest picks: It's crunch time

Miami Florida (-2.5) vs. Virginia

Both teams are far from good at 3-4, but the Hurricanes are better, even having lost four of their last five. Quarterback Tyler Van Dyke's status will have a lot to do with this, but even if he can't go, Jake Garcia showed some flashes in last week's loss to Duke. And it's not like Virginia is playing all that well. The Cavaliers barely squeaked out a win last week against Georgia Tech, and their offensive woes continue. Virginia hasn't scored more than 20 points against an FBS team, and 20 probably won't cut it against Miami. This game should be close, but the Hurricanes by a field goal is the way to go here.

Oregon (-17.5) vs. California

The Ducks looked like trash in their season opener against Georgia, but they haven't loss since. And five of Oregon's six wins have been by two scores or more. Plus, the Ducks are coming off their best win of the year after defeating undefeated UCLA by 15 last week. And make no mistake about it, the Bears are bad. Give California credit, they hung with Washington last week, but the week before, well, they lost to Colorado. That's when you know you're bad. The Buffaloes hadn't won a game before beating Cal, and most of their games weren't even competitive. Look for Oregon to get ahead early, and never look back.

Oklahoma State (+1.5) vs. Kansas State

With a spread this small, you shouldn't bet this game unless you like the Cowboys to win. And if Adrian Martinez was 100% healthy for Kansas State, we probably wouldn't bet this game, but Martinez didn't even make it through the first quarter last week against TCU, and the Wildcats can't win without him. Plus, KSU's backup quarterback left last week's game injured against TCU, which means the Wildcats are potentially on their third string quarterback. Even if Martinez plays, Oklahoma State should still win this one. The Cowboys rallied in the fourth quarter to beat Texas, and their only loss came in double overtime to TCU. KSU has been a pleasant surprise this season, but even at home, don't expect the Wildcats to come out with a victory.

Northwestern (+11.5) vs. Iowa

When it comes to betting on bad teams, you should usually go with the team getting points. And that's the case here. Northwestern has really fallen off since beating Nebraska to begin the season, but Iowa's offense has been horrendous. The Hawkeyes offense hasn't scored a touchdown in their last two games, and are averaging just 14 points a game. And despite Northwestern's struggles, the defense has been one of its strengths. Don't expect either team to score more than 17 points in this one, but don't expect either to win by more than a touchdown either. 

USC (-15.5) vs. Arizona

The Trojans may be coming off a heart-breaking loss to Utah, but they're also coming off a bye. And if USC is going to have any shot at getting into the college football playoff, they don't just need to win, they need to win big. And that shouldn't be a problem for one of the most prolific offenses in all of college football against a mediocre Arizona squad. The Wildcats have loss back-to-back games by 10+ points, and the defense has been the main reason why. Arizona has allowed 39 points in each of its four losses, and don't be surprised if USC puts up 50.

Ole Miss (-2.5) vs. Texas A&M

Ole Miss is coming off a blowout loss to LSU, but don't let that deter you from taking the Rebels. Last week's loss was just the Rebels first of the season, and the Aggies are just 1-3 in conference play. This game will probably be low scoring and close, but that's an advantage for Ole Miss. A&M has struggled to close out games all season long, and outside of last week, Ole Miss has done a good job finishing games. If this spread was more than a field goal, it wouldn't be worth betting, but at -2.5, ride the Rebels. 

Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina (-3.5)

The hook here really stinks, but still, take the Tar Heels in one of our two home picks for this week. North Carolina is 6-1, but four of its wins have been by seven or less, including the last two by a field goal. However, Pittsburgh has loss two of its last three, and looked bad last week against Louisville. Running back Israel Abanikanda might keep the Panthers in this game, especially considering how bad UNC's defense has been this season, but that's far from certain. North Carolina's offense should be able to do just enough in this one, and win by at least four.

San Diego State vs. Fresno State (-8.5)

Fresno State may have a worse record than San Diego State, but make no mistake about it, they're the better team in this one. Even without starting quarterback Jake Haener, Fresno State is the right team to bet on. The Bulldogs have won back-to-back games, and the defense is the main reason why. FSU has allowed 10 points or less in back-to-back games, and San Diego State has had all sorts of problems on offense. The Aztecs have won back-to-back games, but scored just 23 points against Nevada, and the game before that, managed just 16 against Hawaii. This will probably be a late cover, but trust the Bulldogs on the spread.