What Analytics Say About USC's Schedule Difficulty

ESPN ranks USC as having the 19th most difficult 2026 schedule in the country. This ranks as the fourth most difficult schedule for a Big Ten team this season behind the Ohio State Buckeyes, Michigan Wolverines, and Northwestern Wildcats. Below is the full top 20 of most difficult schedules in the country according to the FPI. 

USC's schedule will provide many big challenges. Here are all 12 of their regular season opponents with each of their respective FPI ratings. USC's FPI rating is 17.0, which ranks as the fourth highest in the Big Ten.

 Aug. 29: vs. San Jose State Spartans (-14.3)
Sept. 4: vs. Fresno State Bulldogs -(-2.5)
Sept. 12: vs. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (-8.3)
Sept. 19: at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-0.2)
Sept. 26: vs. Oregon Ducks (25.3)
Oct. 3: vs. Washington Huskies (9.9)
Oct. 10: at Penn State Nittany Lions (13.7)
Oct. 24: at Wisconsin Badgers (4.8)
Oct. 31: vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (28.7)
Nov. 14: vs. Indiana Hoosiers (23.1)
Nov. 21: vs. Maryland Terrapins (1.0)
Nov. 28: at UCLA Bruins (0.5)

When looking at USC's full schedule, two things immediatly stand out.

One is that this is the weakest non-conference schedule that they have maybe ever had. This is in large part due to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish no longer being on the schedule. USC and Notre Dame have a rivalry dating back to 1926, playing a total of 96 times. Notre Dame has an FPI rating of 25.9. All three of USC's non-conference opponents on the 2026 schedule have a negative FPI rating.

The next thing that stands out is the Big Ten gaunlet USC will have to go through, headlined by matchups against Oregon, Indiana, and Ohio State. These are considered the three best teams in the Big Ten and all of them have made the College Football Playoff in each of the past two seasons. Furthermore, Ohio State won the national title in 2024 and Indiana won it in 2025.

Oregon hasn't won a national title, but has had the upper hand over USC in recent years, beating the Trojans four straight times and seven of the last eight. The most recent meeting came in Eugene last season, with the Ducks knocking off the Trojans by a score of 42-27.

If USC is going to make their first College Football Playoff in program history, they will in all likelihood have to beat at least one, if not two of those three Big Ten opponents depending on how they fare on the rest of their schedule.

According to DraftKings Sportsbook, USC has odds of +240 to make the playoff.

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