What Better Red Zone Execution Could Mean for Nebraska in 2025

As painful as it was to watch Nebraska take the field in Bloomington last fall, the Hoosiers delivered a three-hour clinic on moving the football, even against what was supposed to be a top 25 defense. The tricky part? That performance wasn’t a one-time flash; Indiana dominated all season long.

As you can see, Indiana ranked second nationally in points per game in 2024. Even more impressive was their red zone efficiency. The Hoosiers scored at least a field goal on an incredible 96.55% of their trips inside the 20-yard line, good for the best rate in the country.

While some may question their strength of schedule, one fact is undeniable: Indiana figured out how to put up more points than almost anyone in the country, a big reason they won eleven games last fall.

Now, I know what you’re thinking, but don’t jump to conclusions. Indiana wasn't an anomaly, and the same trend played out across the Big Ten, from top to bottom.

Ohio State (National Champions), Oregon (Big Ten Champions), and Penn State (CFP semifinalist) all ranked among the nation’s best offensively in 2024. The “worst” record among them? 10-2. The “worst” red zone scoring percentage? 87.04%, still over 13.5% better than Nebraska. And when it comes to points per game, each averaged more than 33, with even the lowest mark still a full 10 points better than Nebraska’s 22.7

But here’s the scary part, Nebraska doesn’t need to be elite in these categories to get back to national relevance. As the data shows, teams just outside the so-called “Tier 1” of the Big Ten are still putting together 8–4 and 9–3 seasons without having top-tier talent across the board. They’re simply more efficient, more often, than the teams that find themselves in college football's no man's land.

While Lincoln Riley’s USC squad lost several one-score games last fall and stands out as a bit of a statistical outlier from a win-loss perspective, the overall trend still holds. Take Illinois, a team many believed was playoff-worthy in 2024. They converted red zone trips into points 87.8% of the time and averaged 26.9 points per game. Even Iowa, despite their well-documented offensive struggles, managed to score over four more points per game than Nebraska and cashed in on red zone opportunities at nearly a 91% clip.

Because teams ranked 8 through 16 in the Big Ten all finished within a narrow two-game window, from 7-5 to 5-7, with the exception of Maryland, I’ll spare you a deep dive into each. But the pattern remains obvious: teams that A) more consistently convert in the red zone and B) score more often overall, tend to win more games. It’s not a perfect formula, but it’s a trend Matt Rhule, and Dana Holgorsen, can’t afford to ignore.

While that might seem obvious to most, it’s a reality that’s somehow eluded multiple coaching staffs in Lincoln over the past two decades.

So, what does all of this mean for Nebraska in 2025? It means the path forward doesn’t require perfection, just progress. If the Huskers can make marginal gains in red zone execution and overall scoring, they won't just improve statistically, they’ll win more games. And in the new-look Big Ten, that’s the difference between scraping for bowl eligibility and legitimate contention.

While I’ll admit special teams have played a significant role, particularly Nebraska’s lack of reliable field goal kicking, in dragging down the red zone scoring percentage, that fact only strengthens the overall point. Assuming Nebraska isn’t once again completely inept on special teams, and with an offensive resurgence expected under Dana Holgorsen, the formula is simple: convert red zone opportunities into points at even a marginally higher rate than last fall.

In 2024, Nebraska ranked a dismal 120th out of 134 FBS teams in red zone scoring percentage. But even a modest improvement, say, climbing just 40 spots into the 80s, could mean 2–3 more wins, assuming the defense holds steady. As red zone efficiency rises, so does scoring output. Just 3–4 more points per game would lift Nebraska 30 to 40 spots nationally in scoring offense, putting them firmly in postseason territory, and potentially in the playoff mix.

Without diving into hype, it’s hard to ignore how close this team has been to turning the corner. For too long, close losses have been the anchor holding Nebraska back from the kind of season fans can be proud of. But 2025 presents a real opportunity, not through drastic overhaul, but through simple, measurable improvements. And that should give fans hope.

With coaching upgrades across the board and a unified understanding of the mission ahead, offensive efficiency isn’t just a hope, it's an expectation in 2025. Nebraska doesn’t need to become an offensive juggernaut overnight; it just needs to be better in the moments that matter most.

Red zone scoring. Finishing drives. Putting points on the board. If the Huskers can clean up those details, even marginally, this season takes on an entirely different ceiling. Add in improved depth, impactful portal additions, and the hunger that’s been brewing in Lincoln for years, and suddenly, the sky doesn’t feel so far away.