What Does Sack Model Say About Abdul Carter?

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Anthony Licciardi | Last updated May 4, 2025 8:41 PM ET

When the New York Giants picked Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter with the No. 3 pick, they didn’t just land the best player available. They took one of the class’ two blue-chip prospects, a safe bet at stardom at a high-value position.

Carter has the potential to be a true building block. Alongside defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence, the long-term pillars of the Giants’ defense have arrived, and the expectations have followed.

To some, Carter not winning Defensive Rookie of the Year would be a disappointment. As an edge rusher, he has a leg up on the competition. Yet, he’s headlining a strong crop of edge rushers entering the league, and no one has managed nearly as much hype.

Fans and draft analysts aren’t alone in their excitement for New York’s budding star. ESPN’s sack model predicts success for the Giants’ rookie, too. Seth Walder’s model predicts sack totals over the course of a player’s first three seasons, and Carter tops the leaderboard, just ahead of Baltimore Ravens edge rusher Mike Green.

Let's try this again:

Sack forecast for this year's draft prospects!

This model projects each player's total sacks over years 1-3 in their NFL careers. It's intended as a pre-draft model but I had a bug I didn't manager to squash until today. pic.twitter.com/dpNBELQWmu
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) April 30, 2025

Carter is projected for 15.5 sacks over his first three years, with Green at 13.4. Dallas Cowboys edge rusher Donovan Ezeiruaku and Atlanta Falcons first-round pick James Pearce Jr. are next at 10.9 sacks, with Falcons linebacker Jalon Walker and Steelers defensive tackle Derrick Harmon rounding out the group projected for 10+ sacks.

“The model sees Abdul Carter as the clear-cut No. 1 pass rusher in this class, which is no surprise, but it actually likes Carter quite a bit less than it liked Dallas Turner a year ago,” Walder wrote.

A lofty projection for Carter isn’t a shock, both due to his reputation and the model’s inputs. Taking into account college sack production, pressure rates, age, measurables, and other factors, Carter checks plenty of boxes. He’s an elite athlete with encouraging production. In his only season as a full-time edge rusher, Carter posted 12 sacks. As a linebacker in the two prior seasons, he combined for 11 sacks.

It’s also important to note that 15.5 sacks isn’t an incredibly high number, and that’s by design. Projections are supposed to bend toward the mean, and the NFL Draft remains uncertain, despite years of study. Top prospects still fail, injuries can knock players off brighter paths, and an infinite number of factors could shape Carter’s career.

With Lawrence, Brian Burns, and Kayvon Thibodeaux adding to New York’s defensive line, Carter will at least be positioned for success.

Giants rookie defensive tackle Darius Alexander is projected for 5.06 sacks in his first three seasons.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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