What history has told us when creating expectations for CJ Carr or Kenny Minchey as a first-year starting QB for Notre Dame

Notre Dame football is doing something this offseason they haven't done in a very, very long time, have a legitimate quarterback competition. With Steve Angeli opting to transfer to Syracuse after spring practice concluded, we know that the starting signal caller will either be redshirt sophomore Kenny Minchey or redshirt freshman CJ Carr. As of today, Carr is viewed as the slight favorite, but this battle will rage on for the rest of summer and into the fall.

Whoever does end up starting for the Fighting Irish on August 31st against the Miami Hurricanes, it will be their first career start. Between the two, they have only thrown three career passes, all coming via the right arm of Minchey. In the last 20 years, Notre Dame has had just five starting quarterbacks who entered the year with no career starts. While a small sample, it can assist us all in creating fair expectations for the potential starting signal caller heading into 2025. 

If Carr does end up winning the starting job, rationality will not end up winning out. The former top recruit is considered the Golden Child by a large portion of the fanbase, and there is a chance that the Michigan native will never quite reach the expectation of some, fair or not. Based on the data, there are a lot of reasons to be very optimistic for the 2025 season and the future, but also reasons to potentially temper expectations.

For transparency purposes, the quarterbacks that were included in this exercise are Jimmy Clausen (2007), Dayne Crist (2010), Everett Golson (2012), DeShone Kizer (2015), and Brandon Wimbush (2017). All of them had no career starts entering that first year as starters, which is why players like Tommy Rees and Ian Book were not included. Both had at least one start under their belt before they took over on a full-time basis. 

I also included Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder considering the relevance to offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock. For those that don't like that inclusion, it actually helps the overall numbers of the group quite a bit. Without him, the numbers are pretty uninspiring. 

Here is that breakdown of how each quarterback faired in their first season, and an average of those numbers at the very bottom. 

Notre Dame QB history

Considering those averages, would anyone be happy if the starting quarterback for Notre Dame threw for 2,149 yards, 16 touchdowns, and seven interceptions this fall during the regular season? You can also include rushing numbers into the conversation if you would please, and say that the starter would account for 2,496 yards and 23 total touchdowns in 12 games. Would that be a solid foundation and receive approval from Fighting Irish fans out there?

Some will blame the inclusion of Clausen on the list, and cite the situation he walked into. While that objection is fair, taking him out, would not have altered the numbers a ton. I also partly included Ridder in the data to help minimize that negative impact.

Regardless of the inclusion, there are some undisputable facts, Notre Dame has never had a first-year starter with no prior starting experience throw for 3,000 yards in a season. Only two, Kizer and Wimbush, have combined for at least 30 total touchdowns in that respective year. 

As a pure passer, most will hope that Carr or Minchey is somewhere near the level of Kizer. He was, by pretty much every metric, the most successful quarterback in the sample. His numbers were especially impressive considering that Malik Zaire started the first two games of the season before he was injured. Kizer's performance feels like it is the high-end outcome more than likely.

If you don't want to include Clausen for obvious reasons, that would make Golson the most likely low-end outcome from a production perspective, especially considering that Crist didn't play a full season in 2010. Golson managed to account for 2,703 yards and 18 total touchdowns that season while leading the team to an undefeated regular season. 

Those numbers would, understandably, be pretty underwhelming for most. There is some context to understand, which includes that the starter will be operating an offense that majors in running the football. There also has to be a discussion about how conservative it will be with an experienced quarterback under center, at least early on in the season. Whether or not the wide receiver room takes a considerable jump is another potential factor. 

The numbers will more than likely exceed just about anyone on this list, especially if the Irish make another deep playoff run under head coach Marcus Freeman. This is a plea for Notre Dame fans out there to consider the context when looking back on 2025. This season is about setting up for the future, and building a foundation under center. Let's not jump off of the ledge if there are some struggles, which there will be.