What is Michigan State's Ceiling in 2025?

MSU taking a leap in year two of the Smith era starts with Aidan Chiles taking a leap individually.

The junior starting quarterback's talent is undeniable; his mobility and knack at extending plays much further than seemed possible can open up doors for MSU, but Chiles must cool it with the turnovers in 2025. His 11 interceptions were tied for the most in the Big Ten last year, and Chiles also turned it over an additional four times on fumbles.

It was something Chiles improved on throughout 2024, though; he didn't commit a turnover in any of MSU's final three games of last season.

Another thing about Chiles' turnovers is that they very often happened when MSU was in third-and-long situations. Defenses essentially know a team is going to pass on third-and-10, so preventing situations like that will be key for Chiles and MSU.

How does that happen? Improved offensive line play and getting solid gains from the ground game, whether it be Brandon Tullis, Makhi Frazier or Elijah Tau-Tolliver carrying the rock.

Defensively, the three keys will be pressuring the quarterback, eliminating drives on third/fourth down, and forcing more turnovers.

MSU had a six-game drought without a sack. Obviously, something like that cannot stand if the Spartans want to win more games this year. MSU returns defensive end Jalen Thompson, but also added rush ends Isaac Smith, David Santiago and Anelu Lafaele out of the portal.

The Spartans also couldn't get off the field on later downs. MSU's defense allowed opponents to convert 44.3% of the time on third down (109th in FBS) and 66.7% of the time when they went for it on fourth down (t-117th in FBS).

Lastly, forcing turnovers was another big problem for MSU's defense. Just 11 turnovers gained ranked at t-117th in the FBS. Combined between the offense and defense, MSU had a minus-8 turnover margin.

W-L Ceiling: 10-3

If, and I mean if, MSU is able to improve in all of those areas, I think this team has the capability to go 10-3.

In this scenario, the only game you probably assume a loss is when No. 2 Penn State comes to town on Nov. 15. Other than that, games where MSU probably has the upper hand include all three non-conference games, at Nebraska, UCLA, (perhaps) Michigan, at Minnesota, and Maryland.

Let's be realistic and assume wins against Western Michigan and Youngstown State and a loss to Penn State. In this scenario, that makes MSU a favorite against six other teams. It may be bold to think MSU goes 6-0 there, so let's go with 5-1.

That would make MSU 7-2 with three tougher games at USC, at Indiana and at Iowa. Again, probably bold to think 3-0 there, so let's go with 2-1.

Overall, that's a 9-3 season and a ranking that probably is short of the College Football Playoff, but maybe is a resume that becomes worthy of discussion. MSU would then likely play in a bowl game of the caliber of the ReliaQuest Bowl and probably take on another 9-3 SEC team. Since this is an MSU team playing at its ceiling, we'll tick off a 10th win there.

Stay up to date with all our content when you follow the official Spartan Nation page on Facebook, Spartan Nation, WHEN YOU CLICK RIGHT HERE, and be sure to share your thoughts on the Spartans' non-conference schedule when you join our community group, Go Green Go White, WHEN YOU CLICK RIGHT HERE.

Don't forget to give us a follow on X @MSUSpartansOnSI as well.