Where does the Pac-12 go from here after mass exodus?

The Pac-12 as we knew it died on Friday when five schools committed to leaving the conference in 2024, completing a full exodus that was initiated last year when UCLA and USC decided to leave for the Big Ten.

Though UCLA, USC, Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Oregon and Washington are gone, there are still four schools remaining in the Pac-12. Northern California rivals Cal and Stanford have been left behind, as have Oregon State and Washington State.

The Pac-12 has failed spectacularly over the last decade, going from one of the best and most respected conferences to fading to irrelevance. There is/was a lack of fan interest — especially in the football realm — for many of the schools. But the four schools left behind apparently want to make things work in the conference moving forward.

How can they make that happen? They would like to add schools.

Whether it’s a “merger” or “adding” schools, the Pac-12 wants to continue operating.

John Canzano, whose reporting seems to be coming from a Pac-12 slant, says the conference wants to “add” schools and not merge. His use of that specific language seems to be a very strong clue that he’s getting his information from people who want to make it seem like the Pac-12 is the big boy and not slumming it by merging with the “inferior” Mountain West.

The problem is that Mountain West schools are committed to their current media deals and would have to pay $34M in exit fees to leave the conference in time for 2024, which is when the eight schools are leaving the Pac-12.

The Mountain West has 12 schools in its conference. They could add schools and operate under their current conference name and media deal. Oregon State and Washington State could be fits there.

The Mountain West could also dissolve in name and go compete under the stronger Pac-12 name/brand. This would allow them to eliminate the expensive exit fees. Conference bylaws can be changed if nine of the 12 schools vote for the changes. 

The Pac-12 could theoretically add nine schools from the Mountain West in order to avoid the exit fees, but that would leave three Mountain West schools behind (potentially San Jose State, Nevada and Hawaii).

The problem, once again, appears to be that the Pac-12 leadership is overestimating their value. The Pac-12 adding schools from either the Mountain West or AAC would be expensive for the schools that are leaving if those schools have to pay fees.

Being realistic, a football conference featuring Cal, Stanford, Oregon State, Washington State, Boise State, Fresno State and San Diego State would be a really good starting point for rebuilding. Those schools being together for all sports in general makes a lot of sense, though Cal and Stanford may not feel they are academically aligned with the other institutions. 

Whether it’s adding schools to the Pac-12 or joining the Mountain West, Oregon State and Washington State should have good homes ahead, though not nearly as lucrative ones. What Cal and Stanford do are different questions. Stanford always has the option to go independent in football for now.