Why Big 12 Football Tiebreakers Could Matter More Than Ever in 2025

What’s going on in the Big 12 and beyond? I expand and explain every Sunday in Postscripts at Heartland College Sports, your home for independent Big 12 coverage.

This week, we need to talk about the likelihood of your favorite team getting to the Big 12 Championship game.

Don’t Count to Three Losses

The walk back from Amon G. Carter Stadium to my car on Saturday night was about 20 minutes. At least it was a cool night in Fort Worth. Enough time to contemplate that Colorado’s time as a Big 12 contender was, realistically, done.

The Buffaloes dropped to 2-4, 0-3 in the Big 12 with the 35-21 loss to the TCU Horned Frogs. Now, CU isn’t mathematically out of the race to get to the Big 12 title game in December. No one is mathematically eliminated. But, based on the short history of a 16-team Big 12, the Buffs, along with the 0-3 West Virginia Mountaineers, are essentially done.

Why? Well, think about last year. The top of the Big 12 was shared by four teams — Arizona State, Iowa State, BYU, and Colorado. All finished 7-2. The Cougars and the Buffs lost the tiebreakers. The Sun Devils and the Cyclones played in the title game. Beyond them were three 6-3 teams in league action — Baylor, TCU, and Texas Tech.

See why it’s so unrealistic for the Buffs and Mountaineers to contend now? Even if both run the table and finish 6-3, both need the field to come back to them by three losses. With a 16-team league and an unbalanced schedule, that just seems unrealistic.

That’s why the game was important for TCU (4-1, 1-1). After falling to Arizona State in their Big 12 opener, the Horned Frogs could ill afford a second league loss this early. Head coach Sonny Dykes knew it. And he knew that Saturday’s game would not be easy. The Buffs may not look good by record, but they’re a talented team.

“Every game in this league is a dogfight,” Dykes said.

Early October is a good time to start thinking about the margin for error to get to Arlington. There are four undefeated teams left in Big 12 play — Arizona State, BYU, Cincinnati, and Texas Tech. With seven games remaining and an ultra-competitive league, I have a hard time believing any of them will finish undefeated. In fact, these teams will pick each other off.

BYU must face Texas Tech and Cincinnati. Texas Tech also faces Arizona State. The Sun Devils got lucky, only having to face the Red Raiders. Cincinnati, fortunately, only gets BYU. But does anyone believe any of the four will finish 9-0? I just can’t see it. TCU did it in 2022, and how many close calls did the Horned Frogs have? Plus, they lost the title game to Kansas State.

The one-loss teams aren’t done, either. They just have less margin for error. That’s Baylor, Iowa State, and Kansas at 2-1 and Arizona, Houston, TCU, and Utah at 1-1. If any of them finish 8-1, not only would that be impressive, but it would also basically guarantee a ticket to Arlington.

As for the two-loss teams? Kansas State, UCF, and Oklahoma State? None can lose another game, or they end up in the Colorado-West Virginia strata.

An expanded playoff hasn’t lessened the importance of the regular season. If anything, it’s amped it up. Not only are teams trying to limit losses, but each likely needs at least 10 wins overall to get College Football Playoff consideration.

I don’t recall who it was on X, but someone worked out a scenario in which five Big 12 teams could finish 8-1 in league action this season. That scenario is still quite possible.

As I walked to my car, I thought about just how exciting these next two months are going to be. You thought last year’s race was incredible? The Big 12 better make sure the tiebreakers are, you know, accurate? The league is going to need them.

ABC YOU SAY?

This, honestly, was a long time coming.