Why Paul Finebaum is sour on Tennessee's CFP odds after losing Nico Iamaleava

The Tennessee Volunteers have a new — and unexpected — look heading into 2025.

At the start of spring practice, former five-star quarterback Nico Iamaleava was the starting quarterback after a decent redshirt freshman season that saw him help Tennessee make it to the College Football Playoff.

Things quickly unraveled between Iamaleava and Tennessee, though, as a dispute over NIL money led to the former star recruit hitting the transfer portal. Iamaleava is now at UCLA, and in a stroke of irony, Joey Aguilar, who was expected to be the likely starter at UCLA in 2025, hit the transfer portal and ended up at Rocky Top.

The Vols and Bruins essentially switched starting quarterbacks for 2025, and one SEC analyst, the always-opinionated Paul Finebaum, thinks Tennessee essentially downgraded.

“This was the biggest story of the offseason, with Nico leaving. Joey Aguilar, from App State via UCLA is not the perfect answer. He’s good, but he’s not great," Finebaum said on ESPN's "SportsCenter" on Tuesday (h/t On3). "Nico could’ve been great, even though he wasn’t last year. Quite frankly, I don’t like Tennessee’s chances of the Playoff at all.”

Last season, Iamaleava threw for 2,616 yards and 19 touchdowns (five interceptions) while also rushing for 358 yards and three scores. As Finebaum alluded to, it wasn't a superstar year from Iamaleava by any stretch of the imagination, but he does have that kind of potential.

Aguilar transferred to UCLA after a very successful stint at Appalachian State. He threw for 3,003 yards and 23 touchdowns with 14 interceptions. He did score two touchdowns on the ground, but he's certainly not the running and athletic threat that Iamaleava is.

Ultimately, Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel bet on himself and his staff this spring. He made a point that nobody is bigger than the program, even the star quarterback, but now he's got to back that up by coaching up Aguilar.

He's a veteran quarterback with plenty of good experience, but playing in the Sun Belt, even at a high-level program like Appalachian State, is different than playing in the SEC.

It may be fair to predict that Tennessee will take a step back as a result, but that's why they play the games. Heupel, Aguilar and the Volunteers will get the chance to prove themselves this fall.

Meanwhile, Iamaleava will have to try to resurrect his image with one of the worst programs in the Big Ten.