Why QB Arch Manning might stay at Texas longer than anticipated

Although Texas quarterback Arch Manning hasn't played a snap in the 2025 college football season or even been a full-time starter yet, his last name has already made him one of the most intriguing NFL quarterback prospects in years.

Manning, a former consensus No. 1 overall recruit and the nephew of Super Bowl-winning QBs Peyton and Eli Manning, is heading into his redshirt sophomore season at Texas. He appeared in just two games as a freshman and played in 10 games last season with two starts.

The 21-year-old could declare for the 2026 NFL Draft following the 2025 campaign, but experts think he's likely to stay put.

“I think the feeling around the league has been that he’s going to be at Texas for a couple years and he’d be in the draft in ’27, most likely," ESPN's Adam Schefter said on Monday's edition of "Get Up" (h/t On3).

ESPN's Mike Tannenbaum agreed with Schefter.

“You know, talking to a number of teams? Look, they’re going to monitor the situation and the whole ‘March for Arch’. But, barring something unforeseen, most teams believe he’ll come back for at least one more year at Texas,” Tannenbaum said.

If this were pre-NIL (name, image, likeness) and revenue-sharing, Arch Manning would almost certainly be heading to the NFL as soon as he was eligible. Not only does he have a legacy in the league that will quickly make him a star, but reports coming out of Austin suggest that he could be the real deal. He may never reach the levels of his uncles, but he certainly seems to possess that "Manning factor."

In the "old days," heading to the NFL as soon as possible would be a way for a player to get paid for their skill set. That's no longer necessary in this modern era of college football, though. Not only can Arch Manning leverage his star power at Texas to secure a substantial amount of money through NIL deals, but he is also now eligible to receive revenue sharing from the university itself.

In fact, there's a world in which Arch Manning can make more money as a star in college than as a rookie quarterback in the NFL. On3 gives Arch Manning a NIL valuation of $6.8 million. No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward will be making a base salary of $840,000 this season in the NFL with the Tennessee Titans.

Staying at Texas for at least two more seasons makes sense for a quarterback like Arch Manning. The NFL will come calling, but he has a lot to gain by staying with the Longhorns — and that's not even to mention Texas' College Football Playoff hopes.