Why UCLA Could Make the CFP Next Season

Although the Dukes were beaten decisively by Oregon in the first round, the appearance itself was a landmark moment for the program and a defining one for Chesney, who emerged from the experience as one of the most sought-after young coaches in college football.

UCLA moved quickly to capitalize on that momentum, hiring Chesney after two disappointing seasons under former head coach DeShaun Foster. With Chesney now in place, many believe the Bruins are already on the path toward becoming a legitimate College Football Playoff contender in the near future.

Is the CFP Out of Reach in the Future?

Codey Nagel of CBS Sports included UCLA in his overreactions piece for every Big Ten team this offseason, with the overreaction being that Chesney is already building a future CFP contender in Westwood. As Nagel writes, "The program averaged 50th nationally in recruiting over the last eight cycles, a number that was never going to cut it in the Pac-12, let alone the Big Ten. Chesney is already changing that."

"UCLA sits No. 3 in the 2027 recruiting cycle, the first class fully under his watch, and is beating out Big Ten and SEC powers for prospects. The concern is that recruiting momentum is fragile. Chesney hasn't coached a game yet, and a slow start in 2026 could unravel a class that's still months from signing day. However, the signs of life are already there, and for a program that seemingly had none just a few months ago, that's not a small thing."

Nagel's point is well taken. The recruiting improvement under Chesney has been dramatic and rapid, but sustaining that momentum will require results on the field. A strong debut season in 2026 would go a long way toward locking in the commitments already in place and attracting the next wave of top prospects.

Could UCLA Surprise People Next Year?

UCLA is unlikely to make the College Football Playoff next season, and that is not a knock on Chesney or the program. The Big Ten projects to have three of the best teams in college football in Oregon, Indiana, and Ohio State, while USC, Penn State, and Michigan are all legitimate playoff contenders as well. Breaking through that level of competition in year one would be an extraordinary ask for any first-year head coach.

The schedule compounds the challenge. The Bruins will face road games at Oregon and Michigan while also hosting USC, Illinois, and others. Navigating that kind of gauntlet while installing a new system and integrating a largely rebuilt roster makes a playoff run in 2026 a distant possibility at best.

That said, surprising people does not require making the playoff. If Chesney can keep the recruiting class intact, develop the roster, and steal a win or two against programs ahead of UCLA in the conference hierarchy, the narrative around this program will shift quickly. The foundation is being built. The 2026 season is about proving it can hold weight.