Feb 21, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils guard Anthony Johnson (2) scores a layup against the Baylor Bears during the first half at Paul and Alejandra Foster Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images Chris Jones-Imagn Images

Why Utah Represents Arizona State’s True Turning Point

Originally posted on Arizona State Sun Devils on SI
By Lizzie Vargas | Last updated Feb 28, 2026 11:00 AM ET

Arizona State basketball is at a crossroads. After back-to-back road losses to Baylor and TCU, the Sun Devils are suddenly fighting just to stay above .500.

Now, with Utah coming to town Saturday afternoon, this isn’t just another conference game. It feels bigger than that. It feels like the moment that decides whether this season still has life or if it quietly fades away.

The Danger of Falling Below .500

All season long, Arizona State has had one strange pattern.

Every time they dropped to .500, they responded with a win. They never let things spiral.

But now they’re sitting right on the edge again.

A loss to Utah would push them below .500 for the first time all year. That might not sound dramatic, but it matters for team morale.

Teams feel that shift. Confidence changes. Urgency changes. And with only a few games left before the Big 12 Tournament, there isn’t much time to recover.

That’s why this Utah game feels different.

Chris Jones-Imagn Images

Utah Is Playing Better — Especially on Defense

When these two teams met a few weeks ago, Utah was struggling.

Since then, they’ve improved. They’re still built around their top scorers, who combine for around 40 points per game, but the real difference lately has been defense.

Utah has started putting together more complete defensive performances. They’re contesting shots better. They’re finishing possessions. They’re not folding as easily in the second half.

That matters because Arizona State’s biggest issue right now isn’t effort, it’s physical depth.

Chris Jones-Imagn Images

The Real Niche Problem: Guard-Heavy and Worn Down

Here’s something that doesn’t get talked about enough: Arizona State’s roster balance is off.

Because of injuries, especially the likely season-ending absence of Marcus Adams Jr., the Sun Devils are extremely guard-heavy right now. More than half of the available players are guards. That creates matchup issues, especially against physical teams.

We saw it against TCU. They got to the free-throw line 36 times.

They won the physical battle. Even when their best scorer struggled, they still controlled the game inside.

ASU just doesn’t have the same frontcourt depth.

With only a few true bigs available and some undersized forwards playing bigger roles than expected, the team can get worn down.

Late in games, that shows up in missed rebounds, second-chance points, and tired legs.

It’s not about hustle. It’s about bodies.

Why Saturday Truly Matters

If Arizona State beats Utah, everything changes.

Suddenly, you’re heading into Senior Night against Kansas with momentum. Win that, and you’re talking about a possible 7–11 conference finish and a much better Big 12 Tournament matchup.

From there? Anything can happen.

But if they lose Saturday, the math and the hope get much harder.

That’s why this game isn’t just about Utah.

It’s about belief. It’s about roster limitations. And it’s about whether this team has one more push left in them before the season runs out.

This article first appeared on Arizona State Sun Devils on SI and was syndicated with permission.

More must-reads: