Will Texas or Oklahoma squeeze out another Big 12 championship?

Last summer, the college football world was thrown for a loop when Texas and Oklahoma announced they would be leaving the Big 12 for the big, bad, SEC.

Now it is never a shock when money drives decision-making in college athletics, but the rest of the division was stunned. Some indicated that those left behind would really enjoy it if they could prevent the division's most dominant programs from winning on the way out the door, whenever that might be. 

Baylor succeeded in doing just that last season, winning its third Big 12 Championship. That tied the Bears with Texas for the second-most in division history, behind Oklahoma. The Sooners have won the division 14 times, matching all other teams combined, but with a new coach and a new quarterback, should they really be the favorite to add another title?

What about Texas? Whenever the Longhorns want the world to think they are back, they generally disappoint and I am not sold a new quarterback is the answer in 2022.

Let's look at the top contenders and see what we know about them right now. Maybe the favorites are a good bet, maybe not. 

Big 12 Top contenders

Oklahoma Sooners +200

Former head coach Lincoln Riley was not there as long as his predecessor was, but he definitely made an impact by turning the Sooners into an elite offensive program and Heisman factory. Now they have new head coach in Brent Venables, who coached the defense at Clemson during its recent run of success. That should improve that side of the ball, but will it be enough to keep the Sooners on top? Transfer QB Dillon Gabriel helps, but this team does not look as good as it did a year ago. The Sooners seem to have a favorable schedule, though. 

The payoff just isn't enough for all of the uncertainty at OU right now.

Texas Longhorns +250

Texas has not won the Big 12 since 2009. It is Texas, so there are talented players dotting the roster, including QB Quinn Ewers who played at Ohio State for a minute last season. Coach Steve Sarkisian has yet to prove himself as the top guy, and until that happens, you have to be weary about Texas. They have become the ultimate "fool me once" program, and other than RB Bijan Robinson being a stud, there is not a lot of certainty there. I don't like their schedule either. They have a couple of nonconference games that could shake their confidence (Alabama and UTSA) and start Big 12 play on the road against a Texas Tech teams that is a question mark.  

Texas is bound to get back to the top eventually, but I am comfortable being late to that party. It's a pass on the Longhorns.

Oklahoma State Cowboys +600

The Oklahoma State Cowboys seem to always be the wild card in the Big 12. They are never the most talented team, but they always have enough to beat good team. In head coach Mike Gundy and senior QB Spencer Sanders, they have great continuity leading the program heading into 2022. Last year, the defense was elite, but they lost their coordinator to Ohio State. That loss may prevent them from getting back to the championship game. The schedule is not doing them any favors either with their first Big 12 game being at Baylor, the team that beat them for the title last season. 

I am not overly bullish on the Cowboys, but if I had to make a play right now, they would be mine. It is the payoff I like; they should be right there with all the team on the short list. 

Baylor Bears +600

Dave Aranda is proving to be a pretty good hire for Baylor. He is great schematically and is proving able to make the tough call, like making Blake Shapen the starting QB even though it would mean that Gerry Bohanon would transfer. That depth significantly contributed to the success of the team last season. The Bears play good defense, and they may have to rely on that to stay in the race in the Big 12 throughout the season. They do not have a talent advantage over the teams above. The biggest hit to their chances might be that they have to play Texas and Oklahoma on the road. That might be too much to ask. 

Baylor won back-to-back titles in 2013 and 2014. It feels a bit much to ask them to repeat this season given how much this team needs to win the margins.