Analysing playoff qualification scenarios for Rajasthan Royals after their loss to Gujarat Titans

2008 Indian Premier League (IPL) winners Rajasthan Royals were dealt a massive blow in their playoff qualification bid. The Royals were soundly thrashed by the Gujarat Titans (GT) by 77 runs on Saturday at the Sawai Mansingh Stadium in Jaipur. After this loss, the Jaipur-based franchise has just three games left. 

The season started on a very strong note as the Royals beat the Chennai Super Kings in their opening encounter. This was followed by wins over the Titans at the Narendra Modi stadium in Ahmedabad and a 27-run win over the Mumbai Indians in a rain-shortened game. Fourth successive win came against defending champions Royal Challengers Bengaluru in a high-scoring contest. 

Just when it seemed RR were emerging as one of the top sides this season, they lost two games in a row. The first reversal was against Sunrisers Hyderabad by 57 runs, followed by a loss away to former IPL champions Kolkata Knight Riders at the Eden Gardens stadium. 

After their loss to KKR, the Royals have played five games, out of which they have managed to win just twice. All three of their encounters at the Sawai Mansingh Stadium have ended in defeats.

How can RR make it to the playoffs?

Riyan Parag’s side is currently fifth in the points table and could lose that spot if Chennai Super Kings beat Lucknow Super Giants on Sunday. Former league winners have seen their run-rate suffer after the latest dubbing at home, and it currently stands at +0.082. 

If Rajasthan has to make it to the playoffs, then they have to win their final three games of the season. In case RR wins all their games, they will have 18 points and could very well end up with a top-two finish if SRH and GT lose at least two of their final three games. They would also hope that PBKS and RCB do not win more than two games.

Possible table as per scenario 1 -RR, GT, SRH, PBKS or RCB

In case RR wins two out of their last three games, they will have 16 points, which should see them qualify for the playoffs. But they must also hope that KKR loses at least two games and CSK, as well as PBKS or RCB, lose at least three games out of four left. 

Possible table as per scenario 2 -SRH, GT, RR, PBKS or RCB

If RR win just one game, then they will have 14 points, which makes qualification very difficult. In such a scenario, CSK will have to lose three games out of the four left and will end up with 12 points. The Royals will also hope that RCB lose each of their final four matches, as the current champions have already secured 12 points. In case that doesn’t happen, then PBKS with 13 points from 10 games, from 11 games for RR to go through at their expense. 

Possible table as per scenario 3 -SRH, GT, PBKS or RCB, RR

Matches left for Rajasthan 

17th May 2026 vs Delhi Capitals – Arun Jaitley Stadium 

19th May 2026 vs Lucknow Super Giants – Sawai Mansingh Stadium

24th May 2026 vs Mumbai Indians – Wankhede Stadium.