ICC Women’s World Cup 2025: Qualification Scenario Explained Ahead Of The India vs New Zealand Match

With the ICC Women’s Cricket World Cup league stage nearing its conclusion, three teams—Australia, England, and South Africa—have already confirmed their places in the semi-finals. The final semi-final spot, however, remains undecided, with India, New Zealand, and Sri Lanka still in contention.

Thursday’s crucial clash between India and New Zealand could significantly influence the semi-final lineup, making the remaining matches for all three teams critical. The final outcomes will depend not only on wins and losses but also on net run rates, making the scenario complex and highly competitive.

India And New Zealand’s Scenarios

India currently has four points and a net run rate (NRR) of 0.526. Winning both of their remaining matches, against New Zealand and Bangladesh, guarantees India a place in the semi-finals. Even if India loses to Bangladesh after defeating New Zealand, they would still progress, as they would be the only team with three wins and six points. A loss to New Zealand followed by a victory over Bangladesh would require India to rely on England defeating New Zealand on the final day to secure a semi-final spot.

Conversely, losing both remaining matches would eliminate India from contention. New Zealand, also with four points but a negative NRR of -0.245, must win both remaining matches against India and England to ensure direct qualification, finishing on eight points.

A win against India, coupled with a loss to England, would require a complex set of results elsewhere, including India losing to Bangladesh and net run rate comparisons with Sri Lanka, to give New Zealand a chance.

Sri Lanka’s Challenging Path

Sri Lanka, with four points and an NRR of -1.035, faces the steepest challenge. They must defeat Pakistan in their final group match to remain in the semi-final race. Beyond that, Sri Lanka’s hopes hinge on India losing both remaining matches and New Zealand falling to England, alongside their NRR finishing above New Zealand’s. The tie-breaker rules emphasise total wins first, followed by net run rate, then head-to-head results, and finally original league seeding if needed.

This means India could hold the advantage over New Zealand and potentially Sri Lanka if they beat New Zealand but lose to Bangladesh. Ultimately, the semi-final spot will be determined not only by victories but also by net run rates and a series of interdependent results, making the closing stages of the group phase a tense and decisive period for all three contenders.