2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest odds, picks: How to bet July 4 with no Joey Chestnut

2024 Men's Hot Dog Contest Odds

Odds via DraftKings. Chance to win based on implied probability with the vigorish removed.

2024 Women's Hot Dog Contest Odds

Odds via DraftKings. Chance to win based on implied probability with the vigorish removed.

2024 Hot Dog Eating Contest Props, Prop Bets

Total Hot Dogs Eaten by Winner

• Men's Contest: 51.5 hot dogs (-118 over/-108 under)

Hot Dog Contest Winning Margin

• Men's Contest: 2.5 hot dogs (+234 over/-180 under)
• Women's Contest
  • Women's Winner to win by 0.25-5 hot dogs (+110)
  • Women's Winner to win by 5.25-10 hot dogs (+200)
  • Women's Winner to win by 10.25-15 hot dogs (+360)
  • Women's Winner to win by 15.25-20 hot dogs (+1400)
  • Women's Winner to win by 20.25+ hot dogs (+1800)

Over/Under Odds

• Geoffrey Esper/James Webb combined: 99.5 hot dogs (-140 over/+110 under)
• Miki Sudo/Geoffrey Esper combined: 89.5 hot dogs (-115 over/-115 under)
• Miki Sudo/Nick Wehry combined: 85.5 hot dogs (-130 over/+100 under)
• Geoffrey Esper total hot dogs eaten: 49.5 hot dogs (-130 over/+100 under)
• James Webb total hot dogs eaten: 48.5 hot dogs (-105 over/-125 under)
• Nick Wehry total hot dogs eaten: 46.5 hot dogs (-115 over/-115 under)
• Patrick Bertoletti total hot dogs eaten: 45.5 (-130 over/+100 under)
• Miki Sudo total hot dogs eaten: 40.5 hot dogs (+125 over/-155 under)
• Gideon Oji total hot dogs eaten: 36.5 hot dogs (-115 over/-115 under)
• Mayoi Ebihara total hot dogs eaten: 35.5 hot dogs (-125 over/-105 under)
• Michelle Lesco total hot dogs eaten: 27.5 hot dogs (+100 over/-130 under)

Personal Record Odds

• Will Joey Chestnut's record of more than 76 hot dogs be beaten? Yes (+10000), No not available
• Will Miki Sudo's record of more than 48.5 hot dogs be beaten? Yes (+750), No (-2000)

2024 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Picks, Bets

Matt Mitchell: The Nathan's Famous International Hot Dog Eating Contest is now an Independence Day gambling tradition. Split into a men’s and women’s competition, the world’s top eaters assemble on Coney Island to devour their way to $40,000 in prize money.

I love betting on this contest. As a former driver of the Oscar Mayer Wienermobile, I’ve consumed more hot dogs than most see in their lifetime. But since 2007, this competition has become the gastronomical equivalent of Secretariat’s Belmont laugher in 1973.

Such is the dominance of Joey Chestnut. The legendary American eater has left Coney Island victorious (almost) every year for a period spanning four presidential administrations. But remarkably, the men’s contest will be without Chestnut this year. And just as America’s eating god closes a door, he opens a window of gambling opportunity.

The current favorite is Geoffrey Esper, a serious and muscular Massachusetts man just shy of quinquagenarian status. A three-time runner-up, Esper’s odds have shifted this week based on the popularity of his foremost opponent.

At age 35, Australian James Webb is 14 years younger than Esper and the hot dog eating champion of the southern hemisphere. Webb’s odds have moved from +200 to +125, suggesting a very live ‘dog indeed.

Rather than handicap the winner, I’m betting total dogs eaten instead. Esper jumped from 47.5 in 2022 to 49 last year, and his total sits at 49.5. Last year, Webb improved by over a half-dozen dogs to 47.5, which explains his total climbing north of 48.

The ancient proverb tells us that “iron sharpens iron,” and the same is true of competitive appetites. In the first genuinely competitive men’s contest in ages, with $10,000 and national TV glory on the line, I like both Esper and Webb to eclipse their totals.

Pick: Geoffrey Esper Over 49.5 Hot Dogs Eaten
Pick: James Webb Over 48 Hot Dogs Eaten