Oscar predictions 2024: How to bet the Academy Awards

Oscar Predictions 2024

Best Actress

Collin Wilson: This category can be wild, including surprises like Olivia Colman in 2018, the Cynthia Erivo steam of 2019 and Michelle Yeoh as an underdog to Cate Blanchett last year.

This is also the fourth-straight year the SAG and BAFTA disagreed, as the SAG went with Lily Gladstone while the BAFTAs went with Emma Stone. Gladstone is the first Native American nominated for this award. She was not nominated for a BAFTA after cleaning up at plenty of other awards shows (SAG). Stone took home the BAFTA two weeks ago and dominated Gold Derby User Votes. Stone is neck-and-neck with Gladstone in projected odds for Experts and Editors, but do voters go with making history in Gladstone winning or Stone winning her second award?

Sandra Hüller is a tough wager when looking at the pecking order of the Experts/Editors votes at Gold Derby, although this number could exceed 50/1 by showtime. Gladstone fell to third in just one of 40 ballots. Stone fell to third on three of 40 ballots.

Hüller is a bet you make at the size of a Waffle House meal, Stone is a full unit for me.

Bets: Emma Stone (+120) | Small sprinkle on Sandra Hüller (+3500)

Chris Raybon: Despite Lily Gladstone winning at SAG, Emma Stone winning at BAFTA and Critics Choice, and both winning at the Golden Globes, Sandra Hüller is still the pick of 8% of Gold Derby experts and 8% of Gold Derby editors.

Gladstone is vulnerable due to screen time: While the last 10 Best Actress recipients appeared on screen for an average of one hour, 15 minutes, 52 seconds (or 65.0% of their films), Gladstone appeared on screen in Killers of the Flower Moon for just 56 minutes, 13 seconds, or 27.3% of the film’s total run time.

Stone is vulnerable because she lost the most recent precursor (SAG). She also already has an Oscar for acting, and 75% of the last 12 recipients in this category were first-time winners. This is Hüller's first nomination, though it’s worth noting that she also starred in a supporting role in another Best Picture nominee (The Zone of Interest), which could also help her cause.

There is recent precedent for a longshot winning in this category — twice in the last five years, in fact. In 2021, Frances McDormand won for Nomadland despite a measly 2% of Gold Derby editor and expert votes, and in 2019, Olivia Colman won for The Favorite despite being picked by exactly zero of the Gold Derby editors and experts.

Bet: Sandra Hüller (+3500) | Bet to +900

Best Actor

Collin Wilson: The BAFTAs and a Best Picture nomination are generally precursors to this winner. Both Oppenheimer and The Holdovers are up for Best Picture, while Murphy took home the BAFTA.

However, Austin Butler took home the BAFTA last year for Elvis and Brendan Fraser won for The Whale. This category was even wilder in 2021 with high odds on Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, but BAFTA winner Anthony Hopkins cashed a 7/1 for The Father.

This is a two-man race, with Giamatti and Murphy winning Golden Globes and no other contender generating Expert, Editor or User votes at Gold Derby. The Academy voting base has a strong overlap with SAG and BAFTA, both voting for Murphy.

When actors have careers like Giamatti or the impeccable resume of Jeffrey Wright from American Fiction, there can be a vote for a lifetime achievement of sorts. In terms of MVP to their respective film, nothing tops what Murphy is to Oppenheimer but the math screams Giamatti.

Bet: Paul Giamatti +900

Best Adapted Screenplay

Chris Raybon:American Fiction is a tenuous favorite, with only 56% of Gold Derby experts selecting it to win, with Oppenheimer getting 28% of the vote and Barbie getting 16%.

What makes this category ripe for an upset is the fact that The Writers Guild Awards won’t take place until after the Oscars (it was delayed because of the WGA strike), and the fact that Barbie is nominated in the Original Screenplay category in many of the precursors, so many of American Fiction’s wins have not come head-to-head against Oppenheimer, but not Barbie.

Bet: Barbie +500 (Bet to +200)

Best Original Screenplay

Chris Raybon: Just over 81% of Gold Derby experts and editors are backing Anatomy of a Fall, compared to 16% for The Holdovers and 3% for Past Lives.

Anatomy of a Fall won screenplay awards at the Golden Globes and BAFTAs, beating both The Holdovers and Past Lives in the latter while going up against a stronger overall lineup in the former (Oppenheimer, Barbie, Poor Things, Killers of the Flower Moon, Past Lives).

Bet: Anatomy of a Fall -280 (Bet to -425)

Best Original Song

Collin Wilson: Neither number on the Barbie songs falls in the value category, while the other three contenders failed to pull a single vote from Editors, Experts or Top 24 Users at Gold Derby. Of nearly 9,000 user votes there, the song from American Symphony pulled 36, Flamin' Hot got 14 and Killer of the Flower Moon's Wahzhazhe got 8.

What separates Billie Eilish from Ryan Gosling? From a popularity standpoint, Eilish’s song is light-years ahead of Gosling’s power ballad. Technically, plenty more octaves and a masterpiece on the piano. Head-to-head, it's all Eilish. What Was I Made For won Best Song at Golden Globes, but more importantly won the Grammy for Song of the Year and Best Song Written for Visual Media. It should be noted that Best Song Written for Visual Media had FOUR Barbie nominations that Billie Eilish took down, including a win over I'm Just Ken.

I can definitely feel the Kenergy, I own a “I am Kenough” hoodie. Gosling’s performance and song was such a throw back to my Aerosmith, Van Halen listening days. From a personal taste perspective “BABY, IM JUST KEN” but technically and popularity is all about Eilish here.

Bet: What Was I Made For -750 (Don't bet any higher; use as a parlay piece)

Best Visual Effects

Collin Wilson: The Visual Effects Society's awards saw The Creator take five of 14 awards, while Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 won two of the awards. Godzilla Minus One was nominated in just a single category: Outstanding Animated Character, where Rocket in GotG3 beat Godzilla himself.

Only about half of the winners of Outstanding Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature go on from VES to win the Oscars. Recent history is two straight: 2023 Avatar and 2021 Dune. However, there have been two recent disagreements. In 2020, the VES went with Midnight Sky while the Oscars picked Tenet, and in 2019 the VES went with Lion King and the Oscars picked 1917.

There's no help from the BAFTAs here, as Poor Things (not nominated) beat The Creator and GotG3.

Why is Godzilla Minus One surging in the betting market when John David Washington and The Creator won VES and Rocket beat Godzilla heads up? This is the first Japanese film nominated for Visuals and the first time Godzilla himself has been nominated at the Academy Awards.

Takashi Yamazaki has long been a staple of the Japanese film industry and was Director/VFX here for Godzilla. After years of nominations and no wins for VFX, Yamazaki won Chicago, Florida, Las Vegas, San Diego, Seattle and Utah Film Critics Awards.

Despite parallels to Parasite, from not winning Best Picture at other high profile events to massive steam leading up to the Academy Awards. The combination of The Creator winning VES and Rocket beating Godzilla head-tohead has me splitting a unit with two wagers.

Bets: The Creator (+125) | Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 (+1200)

Best Sound

Chris Raybon: Just over 78% of Gold Derby experts and editors are picking Oppenheimer, while the remaining 22% are picking The Zone of Interest.

Since the Academy switched back to one award for sound instead of two, Gold Derby’s top pick has won each time.

Bet: Oppenheimer -250 (Bet to -355)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Chris Raybon: Gold Derby is split on this award, with 76% of experts picking Maestro but 67% of editors picking Poor Things. While I don’t buy the prosthetic nose controversy as a reason to fade Maestro — it still won multiple awards from the Make-Up & Hairstyling Guild, after all — the Gold Derby experts' top choice has been upset three times in last 11 years, including last year with Elvis getting upset by The Whale.

This is the fifth nomination for Maestro’s Kazu Hiro, who has already won twice, so the Academy may decide third time’s the charm to award Poor Things’ Nadia Stacey, who is still looking for her first Oscar after previously being nominated in this category for her work on The Favourite (2018) and Cruella (2021).

Bet: Poor Things +150 (Bet to +100)

Best Live Action Short

Chris Raybon: The Gold Derby editors’ No. 1 pick has been correct in nine of the past 12 years while Gold Derby’s experts’ No. 1 pick has been correct in only seven of the past 12 years.

This year, the editors have Red, White and Blue as a co-favorite with The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar, while the experts have The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar as the overwhelming favorite.

If the editors are the sharper side once again, there is massive value on Red, White and Blue as a longshot.

Bet: Red, White and Blue +1600 (Bet to +200)

Best Animated Short

Chris Raybon:Letter to a Pig was the frontrunner for a good portion of awards season, but just under 57% of Gold Derby experts and editors are now picking War is Over! to take home the hardware, giving it slight value relative to its listed odds.

Bet: War is Over! -110 (Bet to -130)

Best Documentary Short

Chris Raybon: Just under 73% of Gold Derby experts and editors are picking The ABC’s of Book Burning to pull off the win compared to 24% picking The Last Repair Shop and 3% picking Nai Nai and Wai Po.

This has historically been an unpredictable category, but there is a pretty large discrepancy between Gold Derby and the market in favor of The ABCs of Book Burning.

Bet: The ABCs of Book Burning -150 (Bet to -260)

Oppenheimer Domination Parlay

Collin Wilson: This is a personal celebration after making every Christopher Nolan film a mandatory 100-times watch, from The Dark Knight to The Prestige, Interstellar, Inception and Tenet.

• Best Picture (-5000): The total nominations and likely wins in Best Editing and acting categories all play a factor here. Oppenheimer pulled every single Experts & Editors vote at Gold Derby.
• Best Director (-5000): This is a direct correlation with the Directors Guild Awards, which went to Christopher Nolan.
• Best Supporting Actor (-3500): Seasoned actors dominate this category, including recent winners like Troy Kotsur (CODA), Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Mahershala Ali (Green Book, Moonlight), Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) and Christopher Plummer (Beginners). The transformation of Robert Downey Jr. into lowly shoe salesman Levi Strauss is dramatic, the story Downey weaves is striking, and it was my personal favorite performance of any actor in years.
• Best Cinematography (-2000):Oppenheimer took 38 of 40 Experts & Editors votes at Gold Derby, while cinematographer Hoyte van Hoytema won at the American Society of Cinematographers this past weekend.
• Best Score (-1800):Oppenheimer took 36 of 40 Experts & Editors votes at Golf Derby, and composser Ludwig Goransson is on an absolute heater right now, with recent scores including The Mandalorian, Black Panther and Creed. Goransson was nominated several times for his score in Tenet, and now he gets a win.