Who's leading the Oscar race at the halfway point of 2018?

We’re seven months into 2018, and the Sundance standouts are now running neck-and-neck with a number of critically acclaimed and commercially successful studio releases. Before the late summer/early fall film festivals in Venice, Telluride, Toronto and New York flood the Oscar track with dozens of trophy-chasing titles from top-tier filmmakers, let’s take a look at the films already in theatrical release that stand a chance of making noise next February.

Best Supporting Actress – Thomasin McKenzie, “Leave No Trace”

McKenzie’s tough and tender portrayal of a homeless teenager wandering the Pacific Northwest with her PTSD-suffering father should be in contention for Best Actress, but awards analysts believe she’ll run in the supporting category. Tough luck for Kathryn Newton (“Blockers”), Amanda Seyfried (“First Reformed”) and Letitia Wright (“Black Panther”).

Best Supporting Actor – Hugh Grant, “Paddington 2”

If you’re laughing, this means you haven’t beheld the power and vainglory of Grant’s heel turn in one of the year’s best films. His BAFTA-nominated performance should be a lock for the category’s top five, though Warner Bros’ eagerness to campaign for a pickup from the Weinstein Co. complicates this picture. Also worthy: Michael B. Jordan (“Black Panther”) and Steve Buscemi (“The Death of Stalin”).

Best Original Screenplay – Boots Riley, “Sorry to Bother You”

We haven’t seen an American political satire this righteously savage since the 1970s, and while Riley’s assault on our country’s myriad ills hasn’t caught fire commercially, Annapurna believes in the film and will fight like hell once screener season hits. Also in the running: Paul Schrader (“First Reformed”), Wes Anderson (“Isle of Dogs”) and Bo Burnham (“Eighth Grade”).

Best Adapted Screenplay – Armando Iannucci, David Schneider, Ian Martin and Peter Fellows, “The Death of Stalin”

Based on the graphic novel by Fabien Nury and Thierry Robin, Iannucci’s frighteningly relevant political satire about the vicious power vacuum left in the wake of the Soviet leader’s demise is as profanely hilarious as his previous Oscar-nominated feature “In the Loop.” Iannucci’s group is several strides out front of Brad Bird (“The Incredibles 2”), Ryan Coogler and Joe Robert Cole (“Black Panther”), and Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini (“Leave No Trace”).

Best Actress – Elsie Fisher, "Eighth Grade"

Every awful middle school memory you’ve suppressed gets excavated in Bo Burnham’s brutally funny Sundance dramedy, and it all slams home thanks to Fisher’s breakout portrayal of a painfully shy 14-year-old desperate for friends and popularity. Fisher’s most formidable competition thus far: Emily Blunt (“A Quiet Place”), Toni Collette (“Hereditary”) and Natalie Portman (“Annihilation”). 

Best Actor – Ethan Hawke, “First Reformed”

The epitome of Gen X angst in “Reality Bites” has become the embodiment of present-day existential anguish in Paul Schrader’s late-breaking triumph. It’s a career-best performance from Hawke in a year where he’s also earning raves for his directorial effort, “Blaze” (he also exudes laid-back sex appeal in the charming rom-com, “Juliet, Naked”). He’s the prohibitive favorite for now. Sorry, Joaquin Phoenix (“You Were Never Really Here”).

Best Director – John Krasinski, “A Quiet Place”

It’s a crowded field already, but Krasinski’s 90-minute white-knuckler is a masterfully orchestrated feat of sustained terror that looks even more accomplished on a second viewing. He’s facing stiff competition from Ryan Coogler (“Black Panther”) and Lynne Ramsay (“You Were Never Really Here”).

Best Picture – “Black Panther”

It’s happening. At the very least, “Black Panther” will be the first superhero film ever nominated for Best Picture. Right now, the cultural phenom is running ahead of “First Reformed,” “A Quiet Place” and, that’s right, “Paddington 2” for the top prize.