Liam Lawson or Yuki Tsunoda? Either way, Red Bull loses

Tsunoda drives for VCARB, the Red Bull junior team, and has been a part of the Red Bull family for the business end of his racing career. He's had a strong start to the season with VCARB and has out-performed Lawson on merit. 

But promoting Tsunoda to Red Bull — and demoting Lawson to VCARB in turn — is a wild, head-turning move that will cause controversy in the F1 paddock. It's a Hail Mary pass that only teams in crisis make, one whose margins for success are ruthlessly thin.

Red Bull needs to do something; it'll be out of the Constructors Championship entirely within weeks if Lawson doesn't improve. Swapping him for Tsunoda may be Red Bull's only chance to redeem its 2025 season. 

But in redeeming itself, Red Bull may well destroy Lawson and Tsunoda's careers — and for a team that prides itself on driver development, that doesn't look much like redemption at all.

How will a swap affect Lawson, Tsunoda and Red Bull? Here's what might happen to all parties if the team follows through with a switch.

Lawson struggles in the VCARB

Bye-bye, Lawson. If this comes to pass, we'll likely never see Lawson in F1 again. It's a big loss for him, but a big one for Red Bull, too; the team has invested lots of time and money into his development and would view his early exit as a massive organizational failure.

Lawson excels in the VCARB

A strong showing in the VCARB will restore Lawson's confidence, but it will be awful news for his career all the same. Just ask Pierre Gasly, a previous victim of the Red Bull second seat curse: he made the absolute best of his VCARB demotion in 2019, even winning a race for the team, but it hasn't mattered. Fair or not, the long tail of Gasly's Red Bull flop keeps him out of championship-winning seats to this day.

Tsunoda struggles in the Red Bull

Talk about a nightmare scenario all around. If Tsunoda flops at Red Bull, it will prove that Red Bull's car simply isn't competitive in 2025. It will also hinder Tsunoda's professional development at a crucial time in his career. He's expected to leave Red Bull next season anyway; a poor performance now, even one caused by a difficult car, could limit his F1 options for 2026.

Tsunoda excels in the Red Bull

Both Red Bull and Tsunoda would be thrilled with this outcome, but it wouldn't come without friction. Tsunoda has been within the Red Bull stable for half a decade and has never received a shot with the senior team. If he crushes the opportunity right away, Red Bull will face an embarrassing question: why didn't it promote him sooner?

Did it really not view him as a world-class talent? Or did internal politics get in the way? There's no answer that makes Red Bull look good.